Monday, May 31, 2004

Geopolitics: China Hardliners Advance Cause

The Washington Post has an important story about the internal struggle for power inside of China. The bad news is that this is undermining the argument (of which I have generally been a member) of the engagement "school" of foreign policy.

BEIJING, May 30 -- China's former president, Jiang Zemin, is strengthening his hold on power by promoting a hard-line approach toward Hong Kong and Taiwan, making it more difficult for the country's new leaders to consider concessions on either issue, according to sources in the government and the ruling Chinese Communist Party.

Jiang and his successor, President Hu Jintao, have not clashed over the policies, the sources said, and Hu also favors a firm stand against Taiwan's push for independence and Hong Kong's demands for democratic reform. But Jiang has limited Hu's room to maneuver in tackling two of the most sensitive problems facing his government, the sources said.

A prolonged struggle for power between Jiang's allies and those who support Hu has created a dynamic in which any senior leader who argues for even a slightly more moderate policy risks being attacked by rivals in the other camp as too weak to govern, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity and said they favor neither faction.

Of course it's possible that after consolidating his internal power-base, the leadership may do an about face and perform a "Nixon goes to China". The backstory is that sometimes only someone who is perceived as being "tough" on the other side has sufficient credibility to cut a deal with enough concessions to advance detente. On the other hand, he may be so insecure in his power base that he will require increasingly hysterical rhetoric to maintain a lid on things as the economy rumbles along too fast.

Were we wrong to engage rather than confront China? It's too early to tell but I think engagement was worth a try. What bothers me is not the engagement but the terms of the engagement. We were weakened and they were strengthened. There is a such a thing as win-win but the short-sighted free trade policies have compromised our national security interest in the pursuit of a free market ideology that isn't matched by on the ground conditions. As it is this botch in the execution could invalidate an otherwise good idea. Same old same old as invading Iraq right? As they say, there is no substitute for success.

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SBALowDoc is the SBA’s quick and easy program that provides a guaranty on small business loans of $150,000 or less. Once you have met your lender’s requirements for credit, the lender may request an SBALowDoc guaranty for up to 85 percent of the loan amount. You complete the front of a one-page SBA application, and the lender completes the back. At SBALowDoc centers, the agency processes completed applications within 36 hours.

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7(m) Microloan Program

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