Thursday, June 24, 2004

Geopolitics: Nuclear Crisis, a real NSA speaks

Brent Scowcroft writing in the WaPo has this to say:

Should Iran now be permitted to develop the capability to enrich uranium, it is almost impossible to imagine that other countries could be dissuaded from creating their own enrichment capabilities and consequently the capacity to produce weapons-grade material for nuclear weapons.

We are at a critical moment. Are we serious in our efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation, or will we watch the world descend into a maelstrom where weapons-grade nuclear material is plentiful and unimaginable destructive capability is available to any country or group with a grudge against society?

Staring into that abyss should stir us to action. What can we do? The United States, Britain, France and Germany have already shown an encouraging, if insufficient, degree of cooperation with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. Russia has been the principal source of assistance in the development of Iranian nuclear power. But Russia has already informed Iran that it would expect spent nuclear fuel from the Bushehr plant to be returned to Russia, appearing to indicate that it too has no interest in allowing Iran to develop a nuclear weapons capability.

...

Now is the moment of truth.

He's absolutely right. The problem is that we don't have an option in Iran. The reason why we don't have an option in Iran is we're tied down in Iraq. There's no way short of a draft that we're going to invade Iran. There's no way short of completely despairing of winning the election that GWB will declare a war with Iran (I understand that this is unConstitutional, nonetheless it would happen that way if it happened) and declare a draft (again normally an act of Congress) in order to invade.

Once Iran goes over the edge, it'll be impossible to stop Brazil. If Brazil can't be stopped a host of other nations will go right over that nuclear edge. Nuts. But that's the new normal cause we're boxed in regarding Iraq. And if GWB declares a draft, invades Iran, and wins the election I can guarantee you that there'll be a civil war in America.

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