Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Dept. of Idiots: Lemming Economists Rush Cliff

Now you would think if you've been reading oldman's blog about the economy, that the picture is very clear despite otherwise distorted statistics and the outlook is stangant to gloomy. Threats from monetized inflation to debt service to speculative asset inflation all threaten to take out the legs from underneath the economy. Various sources from both the real world and from the world of economic statistics support the notion that the economy is poised for a slow slide at the very least.

This would all seem very obvious and there isn't any need to belabor the point right? Well you would be wrong. The news out there isn't that things are rocky. No, according to the consensus they're not just okay they're great!!! (ABC-news)

Analysts: Banner Year Ahead for Economy
Economy Appears Headed for Biggest Growth in Two Decades Despite Spike in Interest Rates

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON July 7, 2004 — The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a recent increase in interest rates.
In fact, many analysts are forecasting that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will grow by 4.6 percent or better this year, the fastest in two decades.

There were strong 4.5 percent growth rates in 1997 and 1999, when Bill Clinton was president and the country was in the midst of a record 10-year expansion.

But if this year's growth ends up a bit faster than that, it will be the best since the economy roared ahead at a 7.2 percent rate in 1984, a year when another Republican president Ronald Reagan was running for re-election.

"We are moving into a sweet spot for the economy with interest rates not too high, jobs coming back and business investment providing strength," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Bank One in Chicago, who is predicting GDP growth of 4.8 percent this year.

President Bush is highlighting the improving economy at every opportunity while Democratic challenger John Kerry has focused on what he calls a middle class squeeze of rising health and tuition costs and laid-off workers forced to take lower-paying jobs.

Who will win on the all-important pocketbook issues? Economists aren't sure.

"It is unclear whether voters will remember the past year and the better jobs created during that period or the past four years," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at "It will be a close call and that is one of the reasons the election could be so close."

Assessing the economy at midyear, most private economists are sticking with the optimistic forecasts they had six months ago, even though inflation, driven by surging energy prices, rose higher than expected and the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last month.

"We are looking for a darn good year despite the fact that we had a big jump in oil prices and interest rates are going up faster than people thought would occur," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. [emphasis added]

Did you hear that? This is a "sweet spot". It's going to be a "darn good year". No, 1998-1999 was a good year. This is a middling to stinking year. The irony is that the journalist quotes Zandi, who if you will recall in Businessweek just gave the lowdown with his assessment that if you don't have a job already, you're "stuck". Who the hell is blowing smoke at this story? The byline is Associated Press, so I suppose no individual will have to stand behind this story later.

Where do they get stories like this? Where do they get journalists willing to write them? Where do they get economists willing to blather about what they clearly have no clue about? GDP was revised downward for the last quarter. That indicates a loss of momentum, not a speeding up! The other statistics don't support it either, and reports from the ground level and corporate jobcutting vs. hiring don't support it either. Will some companies make fat profits? Sure. But Target and Walmart are already going wobbly on sales estimates. That does not constitute a "banner year" for the economy.

This is why the oldman is blogging about these topics. It makes sense when it comes out of my mouth, but then I stare in disbelief at people who have degrees in economics spitting out what is really horrible advice. And these aren't novices, these are chief economists for firms!!! These are the kind of people that give economists a bad name.


At October 11, 2005 at 2:57 PM, Blogger St Louis Cardinals BUFF said...

So many blogs and only 10 numbers to rate them. I'll have to give you a 9 because you have a quailty topic.

Free Access To More Information Aboutinternational air travel

At January 25, 2006 at 12:07 AM, Anonymous same day cash advance said...

Sometimes life lets you down and you need a same day cash advance . I dont recomend this. I would recomend learning to manage your money a little better. There are a lot of great sites on how to manage your money. If you need some money right now and you dont have a choice visit.. .. same day cash advance

Waste your money and your only out the money but waste your time and you waste a part of your life...

At December 26, 2009 at 10:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't you love me

You can see me here

[url=]My Profile[/url]

At December 26, 2009 at 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't you love me

You can see my pics here.

[url=]My Profile[/url]

At December 26, 2009 at 4:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't you love me

You can see my pics here.

[url=]My Profile[/url]

At March 10, 2010 at 12:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


[url=]buying cigarettes online legal [/url]
buy a cigarette vending machine is buying cigarettes online safe buy european cigarettes online
[url=]buy quest cigarettes [/url]
order cigarettes online canada buy american spirit organic light cigarettes buy cigarettes in north
[url=]buy cigarette overnight shipping [/url]
buy cheap cigarettes australia best buy cigarette 2652 buy cigarett
[url=]where to buy cheap cigarette [/url]
treasurer black cigarettes buy order cigarettes from florida buy cigarettes online out of state
[url=]buy carton cigarettes [/url]
order cigarettes direct buy cigarettes at the legal age to buy cigarettes
[url=]order cigarettes from mexico [/url]
electric cigarettes buy buy cigarettes indian reservation arizona buying blank cigarette boxes and cartins online
[url=]minors not penalized for buying cigarettes [/url]
buy canada cigarettes buy cigarettes no sales tax age to buy cigarettes in ohio

At March 17, 2010 at 10:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good dispatch and this post helped me alot in my college assignement. Say thank you you seeking your information.

At March 22, 2010 at 10:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Everyone!

i have been looking to figure out a place to start with the acai berry free trial and was just wondering if anybody had some thoughts on whether or not it works to lose weight? So far here's the only [url=]article[/url] I've been able to read that seemed real for the goals I have. Opinions?

At December 1, 2012 at 2:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not sure where you're getting your information, but great
topic. I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more.

Thanks for fantastic info I was looking for this info for my mission.
My webpage ; Work from home

At December 4, 2012 at 10:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your website
and in accession capital to assert that I acquire in
fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Anyway I'll be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently fast.
Feel free to surf my webpage borkum riff black cavendish

At December 7, 2012 at 5:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi, i think that i saw you visited my blog thus i came to “return the favor”.

I am attempting to find things to improve my web site!
I suppose its ok to use some of your ideas!!
Look into my blog ... erinmore mixture

At December 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I do not know whether it's just me or if everybody else experiencing issues with your site. It seems like some of the text in your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a issue with my web browser because I've
had this happen previously. Thanks
Here is my weblog ; old holborn

At December 13, 2012 at 2:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've been browsing on-line more than 3 hours as of late, but I by no means discovered any interesting article like yours. It is pretty worth sufficient for me. In my view, if all webmasters and bloggers made excellent content material as you did, the web can be a lot more useful than ever before.
Feel free to surf my blog post ; drum tobacco price

At December 14, 2012 at 4:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Today, I went to the beachfront with my children.

I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said "You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear."
She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was
a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never
wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!
Also see my page:

At December 25, 2012 at 7:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should be a part of a contest for one of the best blogs online.
I most certainly will highly recommend this blog!
My webpage :

At January 6, 2013 at 10:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A person essentially lend a hand to make critically articles
I might state. This is the first time I frequented your web page
and so far? I surprised with the analysis you made to create this particular publish amazing.
Excellent task!
Here is my weblog - Skin Bleaching Cream

At January 23, 2013 at 11:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like reading through an article that can make people think.

Also, many thanks for allowing me to comment!
my site -


Post a Comment

<< Home