Saturday, July 31, 2004

Economy: Middle Class Squeeze or Stagnation?

Here's an interesting fact buried in page two of a NYT article on the Middle Class Squeeze.

The disparity is also widening between middle-income and high-income earners. Adjusted for inflation, wages for middle-income men - those in the 50th percentile of earnings - were virtually flat at about $15 an hour between 1980 and 2003, according to a paper that will be published in September by the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research group in Washington. By contrast, wages for high-income men - those in the 95th percentile of earnings - climbed by one-third, to $44 an hour in 2003 from $32 an hour in 1980.

"It has been going on for a long time," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute. "Middle-wage workers have not done well over the past three decades."

David Autor, an associate professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said middle- and lower-income workers enjoyed real gains during the economic boom from 1995 to 2000. But their earnings went flat once again after the recession in 2001, and have yet to start rising.

"What's happened in the last few years is that people's earnings have stagnated again, except for those at the top end," Professor Autor said. "It really hasn't been as much of a middle-income squeeze as a middle-income stagnation." [emphasis added]

First I would note that the trend has been going on for a long time - even throughout the highly praised economy of the Clinton Presidency. Second of all, I don't blame Bush for this but he's clearly not doing anything about it, precisely because he's too dumb to even realize it's happening while he takes money from big business interests pushing the policies making this happen. Third of all, that if it was a normal and healthy economic progression there would be a "rising tide lifting all boats" effect. That's not happening.

I don't think it's arguable that it's a disparity in education that's creating these living standard deviations. The 95th percentile is a very narrow band, and there are a lot more people who get college educations in our society than the top 5%. So wages are stagnating even for many of the college educated and middle class people discussed in the article, and not just for high school educated blue collar workers. A lot of college educated people are in that 50th percentile band there.

I also think that the consumer sentiment figures are misleading. They are rising. But consumer spending is dropping. (The Economist) People say they're optimistic, but when it comes to their pocket books they're actually spending less.
One of the abiding motifs of America’s recovery so far has been the “indefatigable consumer”. But the American consumer is now looking as tired as the cliché. Household spending grew by just 1% in the second quarter; expenditures on consumer durables fell by 2.5%. The Federal Reserve’s recent anecdotal report on the American economy, the so-called “beige book”, paints a greying picture. The environs of Chicago are doing well, but New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City and San Francisco showed evidence of a slowdown, albeit modest. Cars are no longer flying off the sales lots, and retail sales in general appear to have weakened.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the gains from America’s productivity-led recovery have been unevenly distributed. Corporate profits are strong, and business investment leapt by almost 9% in the spring. But pay has lagged behind, and the wages of production workers have stagnated. [emphasis added]

One of the things that the economists and political scientists have been promising us is that the transformation of the economy and the loss of jobs from outsourcing would improve productivity and this would translate into new better jobs for Americans. In this I include people like Brad Delong as much as people like Daniel Drezner. I understand that these people are highly educated and mean well.

However when you look at the cold hard data then even a less-than-liberal and an extremely-pro-market publication like The Economist has to admit that the wealth is not being shared. Let's face it, the faith that new and better jobs would be created to take the place of the old ones is not being fulfilled. (from the NYT article)
The mixed picture here coincides with what many economists are observing. Almost three years after the last recession ended, hourly wages have declined in the past year after accounting for inflation. And even though the nation has added 1.5 million jobs since last August, it is still more than one million jobs below the total number of jobs in 2001. At the same time, the adult population has swelled by more than three million people.

Okay we have waited now for three years, and the economic recovery has not materialized. The economy is clearly on life support, propped up by war spending and artificially low interest rates that are undermining the dollar and producing monetized inflation. The faith, and it is a sort of religious faith, that Delong, Postrel, and Drezner have that these jobs will materialize somewhere somehow out there is simply not justified so far by the facts and the observed data.

We can wait longer if these proponents like, but that begs the question of just how long do we have to wait and how bad the numbers have to get before the admission has been made. Remember the NYT and EPI figures show that this trend has been going on for three decades. Is there some point at which the proponents of "new, better jobs" will admit that it's simply not working? Maybe another three decades just to be sure?

The oldman don't care if you disagree with him, but if you disagree with facts then the oldman really doesn't like that. Because that's crazy. And it saddens me how many people have bought into this craziness.

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At November 7, 2005 at 12:55 AM, Blogger Hoodia said...

Help me Dude, I think I'm lost..... I was searching for Elvis and somehow ended up in your blog, but you know I'm sure I saw him in a car lot yesterday, which is really strange because the last time I saw him was in the supermarket. No honest really, he was right there in front of me, next to the steaks singing "Love me Tender". He said to me (his lip was only slightly curled) "Boy, you need to get yourself a San Diego cosmetic surgery doctor ,to fit into those blue suede shoes of yours. But Elvis said in the Ghetto nobody can afford a San Diego plastic surgery doctor. Dude I'm All Shook Up said Elvis. I think I'll have me another cheeseburger. Then I'm gonna go round and see Michael Jackson and we're gonna watch a waaaay cool make-over show featuring some Tijuana dentists on the TV in the back of my Hummer. And then he just walked out of the supermarket singing. . . "You give me love and consolation,
You give me strength to carry on " Strange day or what? :-)

 
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At November 7, 2005 at 10:47 PM, Anonymous Permanent Income said...

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