Monday, August 16, 2004

Economic Forcasting: Global Aggregate Demand Depression

What do the future of the world's economies have in store for them? Is it a recovery underway? Is it a rough patch and things will straighten out later? These are the questions that The Economist is asking.

As the American consumer tires, can shoppers in Europe, Japan and China take up the burden?

CAPITALISM is all about getting and spending. In America, where household debts amount to about 115% of disposable income, capitalism is often about spending rather more than you are getting. In recent months, however, American consumers have appeared uncharacteristically hesitant: their spending fell by 0.7% in June and their confidence ebbed last month, according to the University of Michigan's latest survey...

However unreliable, the numbers cannot obscure the most important question hanging over Japan’s recovery: can it survive China’s slowdown? Last year, China accounted for almost 80% of Japan’s export growth...

...Still, the authorities may be asking rather a lot of the Chinese consumer. Investment accounted for well over 40% of GDP last year. If such an important yet volatile component of Chinese demand were to collapse, could consumption ever compensate? Even if it could, Mr Qu argues, this would be cold comfort for Japan or for any other economy dependent on exports to the Middle Kingdom. What China buys from the rest of the world, after all, are commodities and machinery, not consumer trifles. If its growth were to shift from investment to consumption, its demand for the rest of the world’s products would slump, even if its growth did not slow that much.

The answer quite earnestly and simply is no. Whoever wrote this puff piece should either be fired by the editors or sent back to writing market summaries until they understand basic economics.

Why? Is that overly harsh? No. One reason is that the rhetorical question should be asked of the self before it is posed to others. Never ask a rhetorical question that one does not already know the answer to, rather like lawyers and examinations.

China by the author's own admission is on the verge of overheating. Therefore it would unreasonable for China to increase its aggregate consumption beyond the point that it already is. Likewise Japan was and remains an export-oriented economy. As the author notes, their growth is based upon increasing exports to China. They already have zero or near zero interest rates. There is absolutely nothing more that Japan can do to increase its aggregate demand. Therefore the rhetorical question that the author asks is like wagering the rent money on a World Series game between the Red Sox and the Cubs. Not gonna happen anytime soon.

It is conceivable in some outre speculation that Japan and China could increase aggregate demand, but in no responsible fashion could one call that possibility in the realm of reasonable probability.

What then is the author then staking their hopes upon? The spending largesse of France.
But as Americans acquire new inhibitions about spending, the French are shedding some of theirs. Their spending on manufactured goods surged by 4.2% in June (the biggest leap since the mid-1990s) and their saving rate dropped from 15.8% for the whole of last year to just 15.2% in the first quarter of this year. The French state, famous for intervening on behalf of its favoured companies, has recently stepped in on the side of shoppers. Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s finance minister, has arm-twisted supermarkets into cutting their prices, and part of the interest on consumer loans is now tax-deductible. In the French republic, thrift is now a vice, borrowing a virtue.

Partly as a result, French capitalism, for one brief moment, looks sprightlier than the American variety. According to figures released on Thursday August 12th, French GDP grew by an annual rate of about 3.2% in the second quarter. America grew by just 3% over the same period.

However the author shoots down their own idea.
France’s performance was not matched by other members of the euro area, however. In Germany, which grew by an annual 2% last quarter, household spending has been flat for a year or more; Italy is slowing; Dutch output actually shrank. The euro area as a whole grew by 2%, slower than in the first quarter. The long-awaited European recovery may have peaked before anyone really noticed it had arrived.

This is a particularly bad example of egregiously self-indulgent writing. It's unnecessarily complicated and says nothing to speak of, and where it is correct it fails to convey a coherent and consistent message. The message is that clearly the Euro-zone, Japan, and China are clearly not going to pick up the decline in aggregate demand that will happen as American consumption declines.

Ian argued against my idea of a consumption tax but made honest by ... shudder (shades of Reagan and Adam Smith forgive me) ... the redistribution lite of ownership. This would be the true supply side answer. Redistribution could be accomplished short of nationalizing assets and imposing capital controls which I categorically impose, and I assert would be the inevitible part and parcel of the progressive tax scheme that would attempt to maintain government spending but cause a collapse in aggregate demand and a capital flight and hyperinflation to boot.

The best way to accomplish redistrubution lite would simply be to force corporations to take their profits and recapitalize their labor's pension funds. Not only would this be fair, but it would stave off many a pension cleanup by the federal government, and it would instantly in many causes cause labor to become a plurality if not majority stockholder in their own corporations. It would also have the feature of staving off capital flight. Capital flight rarely occurs when you pay down liabilities against future income and present equity value in assets.

Let's face it, labor has become too weak. However unions are no longer the answer. Making employees literally owners by forcing companies to capitalize their pension funds adequately by issuing employees profits converted into the form of shareholder value would completely change the dynamic between labor and management.

But in the meantime a global aggregate demand depression is on the verge of occuring. It isn't due to oil prices, though oil is helping to precipitate it at the present time as opposed to later. The oil price shock is merely revealing the true financial state of affairs.

Demand will drop sharply, and yet deflation will not take over because of the inability to lower fixed structural costs. That is unortunately the story of what is going to happen. I'm sorry to say that most economists both liberal and conservative have completely missed this story.

And that is the true reason for the inanity of the story by the Economist. It is written by a well trained person without any imagination whatsoever. They are casting about for any excuse whatsoever for there to be a reason why global aggregate demand shouldn't have a demand shock downwards. They fail to grasp that there is none, and that Holmes' maxim: That once the impossible has been exluded, then whatever is left however improbable must be the case ... Holmes' maxim holds.

Did you ever watch the Looney Toons? The Coyote would chase the Road Runner right off a cliff but he would run on nothing but air for a short time? Then gravity would take over? We're about to experience that right now, and America is Willie E. Coyote having chased the Road Runner of unsustainable consumption right off a cliff. Yet it's gone on so long that even experienced economic hands can't conceive of it happening.

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