Tuesday, August 24, 2004

Economics: Californian Future for America?

The CSM has an article superficially reviewing what market watchers are making of California from the outside. I, and several Californians that I know of, take issue with some of the assumptions made about what the new governor has done but that's not the point. There's an old saying, as California goes so does the rest of the union.

California is a trend setter. Here we see it doing the same. In its microcosm of culture, we can see what trends we should expect for the nation as a whole going forward. The conclusion? Rats leaving a sinking ship.

from the August 24, 2004 edition

California's fight to stop corporate flight
State has made strides in easing rules on business, but housing and other costs still bring moving vans.

By Daniel B. Wood | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

LOS ANGELES – Lee Mason has seen the latest statistics telling her California is creeping slowly but surely out of recession. She's read the recent headlines about Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signing a budget with no new taxes and overhauling the state's costly workers' compensation system.
And she knows he has launched a national billboard drive to drum up business for the state from neighboring Nevada to Georgia, Illinois, and Texas. But none of that is helping right now for Ms. Mason, the vice president of Clarke Gear Co. - a 50-year old Los Angeles firm which makes gears for planes and rockets.

She says there are still so many other concerns (utility price hikes, soaring healthcare premiums, restrictive overtime policies, a new family-leave policy, and sky-high housing costs) that she is having to scramble to keep the company viable and competitive. Of late, that means shifting company quarters, after 50 years at the same location in North Hollywood, to cheaper facilities about 25 miles north. Cheaper for California that is. Her workers, she hopes, might find homes for under $400,000.

"We are starting to see the end of recession but are not yet seeing the big changes promised by [Governor] Schwarzenegger," says Mason. "It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if things don't get easier, more and more businesses will say enough is enough and move out of state altogether."

That kind of anxiety is being reported by scores of California firms, economists say. And how local businesses respond could shape population and economic patterns across the West for years to come. For now, the delay in California's economic reform is keeping the state's financial recovery behind that of its neighbors - Utah, Nevada, Arizona - and even helping to fuel their prosperity, as some Californians flee rising costs.

This is outsourcing. In fact in this case it's good and even inevitable. Offshoring proponents tend to confuse offshoring with this sort of phenomena. California is very expensive and overpopulated. The way that will be corrected eventually is that enough people and businesses will leave in order to raise the standards of living of nearby states and decrease California's costs. Offshoring proponents tend to conflate this with what is happening overseas.

They're dead wrong. What's the difference? Two things. First relative population comparisons: India and China are much much bigger than the United States. The second is that they do not share the same currency. That makes a huge difference.

Here in his "Jacobean Economics II" post, Ian Welsh details certain negative aspects of currency unions.
Economically active regions don’t have to correspond to countries. In fact they tend to correspond to metropolitan areas (not so much cities anymore). In Canada you would have an area around Montreal, the Golden Horseshoe centered on Toronto, the Lower Mainland (centered on Vancouver) and an area around Edmonton.

That’s really it. The problem is that those areas share one monetary policy and one currency. So, as Jacobs pointed out in “Dark Age Ahead”, in the early nineties you had Vancouver booming while the rest of the country was in recession – it was in an import replacement period. What should have been happening is that the Canadian dollar should have been rising. But since the other areas (especially the Toronto area) are much larger, the dollar was dropping instead.

That means that Vancouver was getting inappropriate feedback. More than that it was getting inappropriate feedback as well because the Bank of Canada was pursuing monetary policies suitable to an economy in recession – not one that was booming.

If we look back at the CSM article we have that exact same scenario here. The west is booming and interest rates are rising - except for California.
Still-booming Nevada is No. 1 in the United States in business growth, with 4.6 percent job growth over the past year; Arizona is at No. 4 with 2.5 percent growth; Utah is up 1.4 percent. California is up much less, at 0.6 percent, according to the Blue Chip Economic Forecast published by Arizona State University (ASU)...

Partly because of California's housing costs, higher taxes, more regulation, and higher utility rates, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada are all faring better than California from job growth to personal income. Because employment and the ability to spend are the springboard to all other aspects of economic well-being - generating the spending and tax revenue that get state economies moving - economists are touting the latest figures as evidence of how the West overall (excluding California) is doing better than the nation as a whole.

"People have never really stopped moving to Nevada and Arizona, so those states are chugging along," says Tracy Clark, spokesman for ASU's Economic Outlook Center, which publishes the Blue Chip forecast. "Population growth, some of it from California, continues to drive those numbers up," he says.

If the California numbers which occupy the cellar position of these four states are the bad news, the good news is that Moody's Investment Services recently raised the state's bond rating for the first time in four years - the first time that has ever happened before the state's annual budget was announced.

What this necessarily causes is a shift in growth - a shift from California to the other under-utilized portions of the West relative to California. Now many will argue that these areas shouldn't be used ecologically because of water resource concerns. I agree. However the problem there is regulation that doesn't put price inputs accurately reflecting true commodity scarcity into the marketplace. Given that we are not pricing water as expensively as it should be, to give a false political comfort to voters, then this sort of result is inevitable. It is not a problem of the economic process itself, but upon the political background it is dependent upon that is faulty.

Furthermore we shouldn't fear that other regions improve relative to California. Why? Demand for scarce commodities - living space, job, etc. - will decline in California and prices will become more reasonable. California's loss is the West's gain, and the whole benefits from more efficiently utilized capital and resources. Why? Because they share one currency.

The monetary feedback that Ian discusses works both ways. Yes right now on one end it's squeezing California, but as the other states prosper it will feed right back in. This is the good side of money and capital at work in the markets. This is why Keynes proposed something similar for the entire world. (Monibot)
While the UN is, in theory, reformable, the IMF and the World Bank are not. It’s not just that they are controlled by the rich world but operate in the poor world. They are also constitutionally obliged to place the entire burden of dealing with trade deficits and international debt on the deficit and debtor nations, which are least able to do anything about them. When they were established in 1944, a much better idea had already been proposed.

John Maynard Keynes had been working on his proposal for an International Clearing Union for 12 years. When he unveiled it in 1943, it was almost universally recognised as a work of genius. Not only had he solved the problem of debt and the balance of trade; he had also discovered a formula for global economic stability. The Clearing Union was a bank operating at the international level, in which nations held their trade accounts. They would be charged interest not only on their trade deficits, but also on their trade surpluses. Before the end of every year, therefore, when the interest payments fell due, they would have a powerful incentive to “clear” their accounts – in other words, to end up with neither a deficit nor a surplus. The only way in which surplus nations can clear their accounts is to change their terms of trade, so that they import more and export less. By getting rid of their surpluses, in other words, they also get rid of other nations’ deficits. As accumulated trade deficits are the major component of international debt, by preventing the accumulation of deficits you also prevent the accumulation of debt.

Keynes’s idea was blocked by the US government. Many economists warned at the time that the result would be a massive accumulation of unpayable debt on the part of the poor nations, and a corresponding increase in the powers of the rich nations. They have been vindicated.

The question of currency, international monetary policy, and current account balances are absolutely critical to the question of whether international capital flows are healthy. This is a question completely ignored by globalization proponents. They ignore every fact of understood economic history and theory regarding currency markets and capital flows, when they announce that systematically distorted currency relations and unsustainable trade imbalances be the foundation of their system.

In the case of California, California's loss becomes the West's gain and at some future point in time when a new equilibrium has been reached this will become California's gain as well. But precisely only because they have the same monetary policy. We can see in California in miniature the corporate flight that is aflicting America in general.
"California's business reforms are going far slower than people hoped in the first, great burst of optimism when Schwarzenegger took office," says Jack Kyser, president of the Los Angeles Economic Development Council.

A workers' compensation reform package passed several months ago only cut expensive premiums by half of what businesses had hoped for. Unemployment insurance premiums remain high. The country's first, family-leave program - allowing workers to take up to six weeks paid leave to care for newborns or ill relatives - is forcing employers to work around new patterns of employee absence.

"Legislators don't seem to get it that businesses have far more options now. They can open another factory in another state, send manufacturing offshore, go into the cash economy, or even go out of business," says Mr. Kyser. "How they deal with the reforms will have serious consequences on states around us for years."

Business raiders from Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Las Vegas have been eager to welcome frustrated California businesses, and developers can barely suppress smiles over new home sales generated by newly arrived California families.

So the proponents of globalization hide behind a half-truth, which in this case is all lie. They claim that the process of corporate location is unstoppable. In a sense it is. However what they fail to mention that because of a distorted international currency and trade imbalance situation, a new sustainable equilibrium will never be reached. The normally healthy process of companies and individuals relocating to new locations never comes to an end. The bleeding never stops.

So Where Does America Go?

The most interesting thing to note about California is that even in a "healthy" job-loss situation, California has lost about 25% of its jobs from 1993 to 2001. This seems to be the future for America as well. As the oldman has explicated, simple population growth dynamics of an increase by 43% mostly by immigration, and a flat job number line created by exporting capital investment overseas dictates a per capita job opportunity decrease of 30.1%.

California with its high immigration and relatively high geographic fixed costs is merely showing in advance what will happen to the entire United States in the next few decades, if nothing differing from the past thirty years is done.

We see in California an overwhelmingly liberal state. There remain however a small fanatical core of radical Republicans who are absolutely opposed to tax increases. Despite the liberalism of most of the state's populace they seem all too unwilling to force their politicians to make hard choices. The politicians instead play games with fiscal policy trying to avoid making unpopular hard choices. (from the CSM arcticle)
Another recent major initiative by Schwarzenegger - a sweeping plan to revamp every corner of state government - is being seen as promising in the long run but without any short-term fixes.

"Arnold has prevented more hemorrhaging," says Joel Kotkin, senior economist at the Pepperdine Business School. "Had he not come in, the state would be in even worse shape. His influence for now is more about what he has prevented than what he has accomplished."

The Golden State isn't out of the woods yet, however. The state recently sought and won voter approval to borrow billions of dollars to avoid deep cuts in government services when it passed a $103 billion budget. And many analysts say the recovery has not hit the state evenly, with inland and southern regions doing far better than the north.

The area was hit hard by the bursting of the high-tech bubble and is still struggling from the loss of 25 percent of its jobs between 1993 to 2001. "The best way to describe California and much of the West is that the further from San Jose you are the better off you are," says Ed Leamer, economist with the UCLA Anderson Business Forecasting.

The most recent news out of California is how Arnold is signing big casino deals. These deals with the state getting a 25% cut won't help fix the budget problem, but they will assauge the populace. Bread and circuses afterall are the classic solution to economic unrest by the populace. In this case, we can see a fantasy get-rich-quick mentality that continues to support unsustainable tax policies and lack of fiscal discipline.

I'm sure Arnold would love to cut costs. However no one either trusts him enough to do so, or is willing to give up the social services spending that would be cut. There isn't a lot of fat left in California in most places. So Arnold will borrow, and he will cut flashy but ultimately meaningless deals to assure the populace he is doing something, and he will put off the day of reckoning for later.

Meanwhile medical health issues deteriorate, job opportunity deteriorates, etc. The only thing that will save California in the end is a new business inflow from the surrounding areas. That will take one to two decades to develop. The areas around California will become importers to Californian exports - fruit, vegatables, wine, garments, etc. - and this will stabilize California. It will also only happen because California belongs to the same monetary union.

The United States as a whole will not have such a luxury, because of our failure to confront the international monetary arrangements which mean that there will be no bottom to our slide. So long as we keep these unsustainable arrangements of debt, borrowing, bad fiscal policy, and systemic currency distortions we ensure that California is only the beginning of our future pain and not the full extent of its pain.

62 Comments:

At August 24, 2004 at 3:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

FWIW California is screwed up politically. The Democrats are corrupt as hell, beholden to greedy teacher and prison guard unions. They've been in power so long, they ignore their real constituentcies. They are also open border advocates and never met a tax hike they didn't like. Then they wonder and wail why they lost to a ex-muscleman.

The Republicans are just as bad as the Dems but in different ways.

That being said, all the growth in the South-West will come back to haunt them. Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico are all facing water shortages and Nevada is the worst of the bunch. Its not sustainable in the mid or long term.

Even CA itself is facing a water shortage and now newspapers are even bringing it up. Its coming down now to who is going to get the water, the cities or the farmers. There's not enough for both.

The western states were never meant to support the amount of people planned, nor was CA. But when did facts ever stop politicians from doing something stupid?

 
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