Monday, August 09, 2004

Internet Difficulties: Wireless All Tangled Up,

Hi all, sorry about the posting disruption. The oldman made the switch to a wireless internet setup this weekend and Windows XP. He's also just found the confounded KDS manufacturer display driver updates for XP. (Update#$!%#%! KDS just has drivers for this product supported through Win98, not WinXP. I'm running and Intel Graphics driver right now, and it's pretty good except that I'm stuck in 800x640.)

Things seemed okay this weekend, with getting things up and running. The usual sort of difficulties. First had to restore the computer OS because the OEM install was bad on new tower. Then had to junk the Windows Office 2003 crap and install Windows Office 2000 because I had the CD's separately. Had a few power surges but the oldman had plugged a surge protector outlet into a surge protector outlet and then that into a wall socket, and it saved his monitor, speakers, and tower, but an old cheapie stand-alone mini CD-player got fried. Fortunately the oldman is paranoid or the damage would have been worse.

However as of yesterday the wireless service started going down and it's sort of up now but super slow.... Hard to look up references and posting. Not to mention that Outlook sucks crap like usual.

I called the internet service provider people and they said in a message that they were aware of the problem and that they were working on it. When things get back up to speed on my wireless network, I'll throw up some more posts.

Meanwhile oil of course is a very interesting picture, but the interesting story is the effect of mainstream media companies being turned into disinformation outlets. It's not that I find it outrageous - the oldman is too cynical to be outraged by people leaning over to get screwed by the powerful and rich - but the impact on the volatility of the equity and commodities futures markets is interesting.

I'm in the process of working out an idea for quantifying forward aggregate market discounting with Mickslam. With grades being turned in for the summer semester I ought to be able to focus on it more, along with my market efficiency group decision making algorithim research.

The point is that I think that the market is reacting to increased disinformation and the accompanying uncertainty by increasing its "risk premium" in the form of increased volatility and hedging to attempt to arbitrage that volatility.

More on this later. I seems like a highly interesting area of research that dovetails with my interest in creating computer models to calculate actual market efficiency. Be back when the internet gods and geeks give me back my bandwidth.



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