Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Reader Update: Former Technical Difficulties,

As it turned out, I did take some time off from posting to redigest and reanalyze my data. It is always worth an extra notch of caution in order to review one's forecasts, because they are inherently subject to blindspots. The final result however is identical to the original in the main respects of everything I have laid out, because inevitably the corrections began canceling each other out. It is this tendency for random-walk issues and fine grain resolution details to cancel each out or converge tightly to mean values that makes stochastic analysis possible. When it does not, then one certainly has non-linear and potentially chaotic mathematical conditions.

However the current situation out into the foreseeable future of several decades is in its main points still stochastically predictable as regarding basic economic and financial truths. It is therefore in the domain of the actuary and the CPA, if they were brave enough to be honest, and knowable enough that one could write insurance policies against it if one were cynical enough to make a profit on it. I look forward to sharing these details with you all.

My return to posting has been delayed for technical reasons as well. Blogger did not let my Tuesday post get updated to my weblog until today. I am not sure if the technical difficulties with blogger publication will continue, as episodes such as this have happened in the past. I may if publication interruptions from technical reasons continue, move this blog to "movable type-pad" which I understand is a major competitor as a blogger venue.

Rest assured however that in the next few days the content I've been composing will barring technical difficulties and acts of God or terrorism or national security be once again streaming to your web-browser.

I also humbly ask the forgiveness of all the persons I have tongue-lashed or will tongue-lash in coming days, some of them quite good people and readers of mine. It is tough love, or at least the oldman's version of it. If you guys are going to put together a winning coalition and save this country, someone has got to help getting you into shape to govern. Because Democrats and liberals aren't there yet. So I hope you'll continue reading, even if it's you I'll be critiquing.




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