Tuesday, September 28, 2004

This does not impress me,

President Bush starts to pull ahead in the polls.

Good news for Bush in two new polls
President has solid leads over challenger Kerry

MSNBC

Updated: 11:11 a.m. ET Sept. 28, 2004

A pair of new polls released Tuesday show that President Bush is maintaining a healthy lead over Sen. John Kerry as the first of their three nationally televised debates approaches.

In a Washington Post-ABC News Poll, Bush has a six-point lead over Kerry — 51 percent to 45 percent — among likely voters while independent Ralph Nader garners 1 percent. Bush's lead is seven points — 51-44 — among registered voters.

A new poll from USA Today/CNN/Gallup showed similar results. Bush leads Kerry by eight points — 52-44 — among likely voters and by 11 points — 53-42 — among all registered voters. Nader claims three percent in both cases.

In conducting their poll, the Post and ABC found that Bush has built his lead by through "relentless attacks on Kerry" that have "badly damaged the Democratic nominee. ... Voters routinely describe Kerry as wishy-washy, as a flip-flopper and as a candidate they are not sure they can trust, almost as if they are reading from Bush campaign ad scripts."

"But Kerry's problems are also partly of his own making. Despite repeated efforts to flesh out his proposals on Iraq, terrorism and other issues, he has yet to break through to undecided voters as someone who has clear plans for fixing the country's biggest problems."...


it's the electoral vote, apportioned mostly through winner-take-all contests in the 50 states, that will determine who is the next president. In that contest, NBC News currently projects that Bush is likely to win 222 electoral votes to 200 for Kerry with the remainder in states too close to call. To win, 270 electoral votes are needed.

The Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted Sept. 23-26 among 1,204 adults, of whom 969 said they were registered to vote. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The USAToday/CNN/Gallup Poll was based on interviews with 1,006 adults conducted Sept. 24-26. The margin of error was also three points.

But Kerry's support declining among women voters and among "Gen-Next" voters is disturbing.
John Kerry’s lead among younger voters has vanished as they become increasingly inclined to see the country as headed in the right direction, according to the first GENEXT poll conducted since the Republican National Convention in late August.

If the election were held today, the two main candidates would be neck-and-neck among under-30 voters, with 45 percent of them voting for Kerry and 44 percent for President George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader draws 6 percent of the youth vote. Last month Kerry had the support of 50 percent of young voters, Bush had 41 percent. (In the most recent NEWSWEEK poll of all registered voters, taken between Sept. 9 and 10, Bush led Kerry with 49 percent of the vote versus the challenger's 43 percent.)

The increased support for Bush is also reflected in the narrowing spread between younger voters who believe the country is headed along the right track or in the wrong direction. Last month, 54 percent of those polled felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, compared to 42 percent who saw it as being on the right track. In the new poll, nearly as many people felt it was on the right track (47 percent) as felt it was heading in the wrong direction (51 percent).

Let's consider this rationally for a moment out of the perspective of self-interest. I think intuitively most people assume that Bush, simply because he's stubborn, won't call for a draft. I also think that most people assume intuitively that John Kerry, because he's more responsible, might impose a draft. Emotionally drafts are just something people associated with Democratic Presidents. So it makes perfect sense from the perspective of self-interest that younger-voters would swing towards Bush.

That's the next generation for ya, America is headed in the right direction just so long as it's the underclasses that go to die in national quagmires because they can't afford to opt out of a military career track.

You could almost call it the invisible hand of the market at work.

Note that I don't actually believe that President Bush getting a second term would make us less likely to get a draft, but the subjective reality on the ground is that this is what people are thinking. Being clueless about what people are thinking on the ground must be a Democratic political specialty, because it would explain why Kerry is losing women to the "security mom," affect to a President who has increased the danger to America, and why Kerry is losing Catholics to a non-Catholic opponent, and why Kerry is losing young people to a President more likely to create foreign wars in which they will have to become drafted to die.

Now I think it's about time for Democrats to stop being in denial. If they still want to win that is. "Mr Smith goes to Washington," is not a prescription for victory in the real world. I think many Democrats thought "If we show up, they will vote for us." (Because Bush is so awful) Well the answer is, no.

156 Comments:

At September 28, 2004 at 11:50 AM, Blogger orc said...

But note that the NYT is talking about new Terror! Alerts! for the election, so it's not quite as rosy for the Evil Party as the polls might say.

I'll continue to say that all of the polls are lying.

 
At September 28, 2004 at 12:43 PM, Blogger Grand Moff Texan said...

The Gallup poll samples 12% more Republicans (while, historically, 4% more Dem.'s vote) to produce an 8pt. lead for Bush.

How can I get paid that much to do shoddy work?

This doesn't impress me, either.

Start telling the college age kids about the draft we'll need to invade Iran/Syria, and they'll line up behind Kerry. This is an almost feral generation, so you have to boil it all down to how things affect their social lives.

 
At September 28, 2004 at 2:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This generation is "feral?" Please - everyone is acting out of their perceived self interest and the young act, well, young.

But Kerry's failure to sustain a lead over Bush, in my view, stems almost entirely from his stunning failure to offer any perceived meaningful difference from Bush on the two major issues of this time - Iraq and the economy. Folks old and young legitimately view the election as not presenting a worthy candidate.

People are simply choosing stubborn and wrong over weak and wrong. I, myself, will be voting for Kerry - since although he may allow our boat to float over the waterfall, Bush is actively rowing towards it.

 
At September 28, 2004 at 2:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oldman is right the ABB and "Mr. Smith goes to Washington" trick doesn't cut it.

They tried it in California when they ran that sleazy Gil Cedillo against Arnold. The Democrats thought if they trotted out this corrupt POS hoping that people would vote for him because he's a Democrat.

I laughed my ass off as Democratic bloggers went rabid over Arnolds run for office, they all expected him to get creamed or failing that be recalled in six months. Why did neither prediction come true? Because the Democrats had become so corrupt and indifferent to the needs of ordinary people as to be useless. In short they are the taxalot and spendalot party.

Right now theres no Democrat in the state that could challenge Arnold popularity wise.

The Democrats refuse to learn that being a Democrat isn't sufficent reason to vote for a candidate. See most people(voters) are not kool-aid drinkers who believe everything the party bosses say.

As for security Kerry will not be better than Bush domesitically. He's a open border advocate so forget about secure borders, ports, air-ports, etc.

In the end though I have to agree with Thomas Franks assessment when he said the party committed political suicide went it abandoned economic populism. Without it, they don't have much leverage with most people.

 
At September 28, 2004 at 2:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oldman is right the ABB and "Mr. Smith goes to Washington" trick doesn't cut it.

They tried it in California when they ran that sleazy Gil Cedillo against Arnold. The Democrats thought if they trotted out this corrupt POS hoping that people would vote for him because he's a Democrat.

I laughed my ass off as Democratic bloggers went rabid over Arnolds run for office, they all expected him to get creamed or failing that be recalled in six months. Why did neither prediction come true? Because the Democrats had become so corrupt and indifferent to the needs of ordinary people as to be useless. In short they are the taxalot and spendalot party.

Right now theres no Democrat in the state that could challenge Arnold popularity wise.

The Democrats refuse to learn that being a Democrat isn't sufficent reason to vote for a candidate. See most people(voters) are not kool-aid drinkers who believe everything the party bosses say.

As for security Kerry will not be better than Bush domesitically. He's a open border advocate so forget about secure borders, ports, air-ports, etc.

In the end though I have to agree with Thomas Franks assessment when he said the party committed political suicide went it abandoned economic populism. Without it, they don't have much leverage with most people.

Rodger

 
At September 28, 2004 at 4:22 PM, Blogger Grand Moff Texan said...

This generation is "feral?" Please
I don't think you have the definition of feral handy. How much time have you spent outnumbered by teenagers recently? This is about not even KNOWING what your best interests are! They shit where they eat and their weltanschuuang is straight off of Tee-Vee.

And therein lies the problem:

Kerry's given policy speech after policy speech, but all the bottle-blonde bimbo-babble passes on is what cheese he likes on his cheese-steak, along with a smattering of GOP talking-points straight out of oppo-research (as the BBC caught Tim Russert doing in the 2000 election).

The difference you're looking for is clear enough to anyone who can read, which means Kerry is doomed.

 
At September 28, 2004 at 7:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You know its only going to get worse.

The Democrats are now pinning their hopes on the debates. But guess what they ARE NOT DEBATES. There will be no debating between the two candidates, no refutation, no dialog at all between Bush and Kerry.

In essence these 3 "debates" are nothing but sanitized, scripted PR events for Bush. I don't know why Kerry was so stupid as to agree to these terms but he did.

We should have skipped debates altogether rather than roll over for Rove.

So now Bush can lie to his hearts content and Kerry can't say squat or expose Bush's nasty temper and stupidity. Now this is what I call fixing the game.

This was Rove's masterstroke. He took the Democrats lifeline and stangled them with it.

All that said, I think ladies and gentlemen that we are witnessesing the demise of Democracy in the U.S. and the long march towards eternal war and serfdom.

Rodger

 
At September 30, 2004 at 10:08 AM, Blogger J Thomas said...

OK, let's suppose Bush wins. Which of us can expect reprisals for compaigning against him?

Will the people who have said mean things about him in blogs lose their chance at government jobs or government contracts? Can they expect problems with passports and other government services? At first thought I'd expect it would take too much official organisation to put such detailed blacklists in place.

Though it would be easy to put them on airline no-fly lists provided the lists aren't as permutative as are claimed. If Patrick Henry Kennedy goes on the list and it flags all P* Kennedys that isn't so bad, but if it flags all the Patricks and Henrys that gets too disruptive for republicans too.

It doesn't make sense to deny passports to Democrats, since some of them would be emigrating.

Is this worth being paranoid about or can we figure that after the election all would be forgiven?

 
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To be eligible for CommunityExpress, current or prospective small businesses must be located in low- and moderate-income urban and rural areas.

While CommunityExpress is similar to SBAExpress, here are some differences:

• CommunityExpress focuses on predesignated geographic areas that primarily low- and moderate-income urban and rural areas.

• The maximum loan amount under CommunityExpress is $250,000.

• CommunityExpress lenders, together with the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, provide hands-on technical training and support, both before and after loan closings, through community-based, nonprofit NCRC member organizations.

7(m) Microloan Program

The SBA’s Microloan Program provides very small loans up to $35,000 to small businesses and not-for-profit child-care centers through a network of locally based intermediary lenders. In addition to making the loans, the intermediaries provide management and technical assistance to microborrowers and potential microborrowers.

What can I use the loan proceeds for?

You can use an SBA small business loan to:

• expand or renovate facilities;
• purchase machinery, equipment, fixtures and leasehold improvements;
• finance receivables and augment working capital;
• refinance existing debt (with compelling reason);
• finance seasonal lines of credit;
• construct commercial buildings; and/or
• purchase land or buildings.

How do I repay the loan?

The length of time for repayment depends on the use of the loan proceeds and the ability of your small business to repay the loan.The term is usually 5 to 10 years for working capital, and up to 25 years for fixed assets such as the purchase or major renovation of real estate or purchase of equipment. There are no balloon payments, prepayment penalties, application fees or points permitted with these small business loans. Repayment plans may be tailored to each individual small business.

How do I get started?

You submit a business loan application to a lender for initial review. If the lender approves the business loan subject to an SBA guaranty, a copy of the loan application and a credit analysis are forwarded by the lender to the nearest SBA office. After SBA approval, the lending institution closes the business loan and disburses the funds; you make monthly loan payments directly to the lender. As with any loan, you are responsible for repaying the full amount of the loan. Visit **www.SBASmallBusinessLoans.com** for more info.

 
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