Friday, October 22, 2004

Dead Money Vs. Investment, Monetary Policy

The first thing to understand is that dead money always involves speculative bubbles. Moral hazard is when regulatory or lending institutions create the danger of people not properly allocating capital. This occurs when people feel that they are protected or that the authorities will bail them out from any mistake however atrocious. There is always big money or easy money (they are not the same thing) to be made in risky speculation - most people call it gambling.

Moral hazard creates the systematic incentive to move capital from productive investment into gambling because they think that someone else will cover their bets for them.

Nominally Central Banks are supposed to avoid even the appearance of favortism and impropriety in order to avoid moral hazard. This is the theory of central bank neutrality and independence that you will read about in textbooks. In practice a central bank operates through dynamic equilibrium, it is always tap dancing its way through the impromptu jazz rhythms of the shifting economic landscape. Therefore while neutrality and independence often invoke detached or static connotations the practice of a central bank is to be engaged and adaptive to present circumstances.

Every central bank however must deal with political and social realities that it must accomodate that are irrational and therefore outside the framework of economic theory. These are often cultural features that are deeply embedded and the central bank must bow to these realities. When a central bank humors or accomodates these political and social realities it is already departing from the model of the central bank as neutral and independent.

Still the job of a central banker is in fact very hard and without a great deal of sympathy from outside critics or the beneficiaries of the work. Everybody is a critic, as someone said.

The job of a central bank is on order to foster long term productive capital investment while in the short term managing the liquidity needs of practical socio-economic transitions. The problem is that either through complacency or through a constant 'crisis management' mode of thinking that central banks often let the latter mission - managing the liquidity needs of short term socio-economic tranisitions - interfere with their mission to promote long term productive capital investment.

The reason is corruption but not in the venal sense of taking bribes, abuse of authority, or having close associaties form a conflict of interest. It is corruption in the sense that Lord Acton inferred, that power is its own policy and one can become so immersed in the technical details of power that one forgets the long term reason that one is exercising it for in the first place. To forget why one wields power because one becomes lost in weilding it, that is corruption.

In the long term, the economy can not be healthy and grow unless the central bank promotes capital investment. That may seem like a no-brainer. However in the short term the path of least resistance in managing liquidity needs for the economy always lies in working on the side of issues that have political favortism - the protected industries and special interests. Whenever a central bank works with one of these it is not creating investment but it is instead creating dead money.

A central bank fosters a more efficient market and a more productive economy when it fosters real capital investment. But the easiest and fastest way to get things done at any moment in time is not to encourage social change toward more productive investment needs - slow, fraught with setbacks, and expensive in terms of political capital - but to just go along with what the politicians want in order to do it the "quick and dirty way".

So there can be a temptation in order not to just occasionally accomodate the reality of political favortism (protectionism) of various socioeconomic participants but to facilitate it - because its easier.

Every central bank has a limited amount of political capital. This political capital stems from its history of institutional competence in managing both short terfrom which it can signal politicians just what it favors or will tolerate insofar as fiscal freedom and protectionism.

A weak central bank like the BOJ is forced to almost always act in a way that favors protectionism and special interests. This vicious circle fosters a lot of dead money and poor capital investment, creating later liquidity crisis in which the temptation is once again to take the quick and easy protectionist way out rather than attempting to create an incentive for real capital investment. This is why Japan has been floated for the last two decades from one liquidity crisis to another as the BOJ is unable to promote real capital investment but forced to facilitate more protectionism to get through the present crisis only to see a failure of capital investment that creates yet another liquidity crisis.

However the US Federal Reserve Banking system is not weak. It is instead corrupt - not in that it abuses its authority but in that its become addicted to "quick and easy" liquidity fixes favoring protected industries to get through the crisis. This is the "Dark Side" of Central Banking if you will.

Luke stopped as he heard mention of the man, the one who'd killed his father. But, but he was his father wasn't he? He listened as his voice spoke despite his thoughts. "Vader. Is the dark side stronger?"

Quickly his master spoke, emphatic to impress the point upon his pupil. "No! No, no.... Quicker, easier, more seductive."

Luke thought on his words, and the dillemas they presented. "But how am I to know the good side from the bad?"

"You will know," Yoda insisted. "When you are calm, at peace. Passive. A Jedi uses the Force for knowledge and defense, never for attack."

Dead money is not a difficult concept. It comes from considering just four things: supply, demand, currency, and price.

For a constant liquidity of currency, supply and demand will generate a price that reflects the momentary market consensus for that good or service. However if you start adding more currency in circulation, then if supply and demand remain the same the price will rise without anything else changing. That is called inflation.

However in a marketplace where many things are being priced, you could avoid inflation from adding liquidity if instead of all the prices rising just one or a few prices rose very high. As long as that price didn't suddenly decline. Then the extra currency would stay "locked up" in that item. That is it is very hard for social or economic reasons to get cash for that item class. When it is very hard to convert the price of something into raw currency, it is called "illiquid".

So that's dead money, it's just a way of soaking up extra liquidity added to a marketplace by skyrocketing the price of a handful of items far beyond what their supply-demand balance indicates. In practical terms the item being used as a liquidity sink must be illiquid or the effects won't last very long. Housing for instance is illiquid. Yes you can sell your house, but most people selling their house use that value toward buying another house. So housing is an illiquid and can be used as a liquidity sink.

The military-industrial complex can also be used as liquidity sink. Of course when you put money into it, the labor and commodity components generate "economic activity" and so circulate. So does the labor and components of the housing market however - carpenters spend what they earn and buying wood rev's the economy. The housing market however is a good liquidity sink because the prices of the homes can be bid up by much more than the marginal cost - labor and commodities - of production. Remember: location, location, location!

So in the same way the labor and commodities expended in the military-industrial complex also generate "economic activity" and can contribute toward inflation by recirculating liquidity. However the items produced by the military complex can be bid up very high and are illiquid. The Pentagon may be willing to pay $100 for toilet lid covers but would you give somebody a $100 for such a toilet bowl cover? In addition the capital cost structure of their industrial capital infrastructure coupled with generally low efficiency of production all contribute toward making any money you throw at the military-industrial complex "dead money" or money sunk into building big expensive things you can't really sell to anyone for cash.

Right now Alan Greenspan is caught between not one, not two, but three liquidity crises with another on the way. The past liquidity crisis was that in order to finance the economic restructuring of the "new economy" and to smooth over millenium fears he flooded the economy with liquidity. This boosted the stock market, but the stock market was not sufficiently illiquid. The economic downturn caused a stock market correction and suddenly a lot of money started coming out of it.

Taking the quick and easy way, Greenspan dropped interest rates to historic forty year lows. Given the protectionism of the housing market, this caused a real estate and development boom and eventually bubble. However without an economic restructuring -because the economy is in transition- this couldn't lead to an economic recovery but only a stagnation kept afloat by a liquidity injection.

The reason why of course that the economy was in transition is that the petro-economy facing higher competition (demand) for scarce oil commodities and dealing with a moribund capital investment infrastructure in America switched to "cannibalization" mode where it is liquidating or selling off parts of the economy to sustain a bit longer an unsustainable net negative ongoing cashflow problem for the USA.

The low savings rate, the current accounts deficit, the national debt issue, the energy-balance deficit, the capital flight issue, and the regulatory protectionism system are all therefore bound up in the same problem.

The logical conclusion would be to attempt to create capital investment by reforming the regulatory system and removing moral hazard from the marketplace. However this would be politically difficult. Government cannot on one hand protect and openly subsidize petro-companies like Hallburton while successfully incentivizing new capitalization of energy-efficiency and alternative-energy investments. The reason why it is politically difficult is that it is always easy to buy off the public with a boondoggle for a special interest or protected industry but it is hard to convince them to restructure economic patterns even if in the long run that would be more healthy.

However the failure to do so means that the "quick-fix" will be temporary and make the situation worse the next time around.

Now the economy is teetering and not having been fixed and brought up to date from the first petro-correction has seen since 2003 a historic break from the Fed Funds correlation with inflation adjusted oil. What that means in practical terms is that the economy is about to go wobbly again in the coming year. This is why Greenspan is doing anything he can to favor Bush, because to get him through the next crisis he needs a forced savings program like Social Security retirement savings accounts or healthcare savings accounts so that he can make their asset values spiral upward and in so doing so inject enough liquidity into the economy (without generating general price inflation) so that it can get through the next pratfall in 2005 that it is about to undergo.

However while he is doing this the currency value of the dollar is dropping, oil's price is rising - but not rising as much against the Yen or the euro. What that means is that we're running out of time. Over time the Yen and the euro don't see as much of a price increase in the price of oil. That means that over time their economies suffer less from the same price increases. Furthermore it means that other countries will favor putting more and more of their money obtained from exporting to us into Yen and euros.

If this trend continues America will lose its petro-currency commodity trading status and reserve currency status within perhaps five years.

Of course Greenspan is not an idiot. He understands that a switch to either a basket of currencies or a yen/euro standard for oil is probably not only inevitable but perhaps desirable. The globalist concept as I mentioned is to try to export to Europe and get offshoring jobs from them the way that Asia exported to us and got offshoring jobs from us (while trading being the policeman of the world in exchange for them financing our debt). The problem is that the unproductive and inefficient capital investment environment combined with the above outlined problems of debt, political will, etc. make it highly unlikely that we can make such a transition without a sharp drop in aggregate demand, higher interest rates, and super-inflation.

In historical terms the plan isn't working and both the domestic-side application and the foreign-intervention are both going sour. Perhaps they think they can salvage it but already in proven quantities and facts the idea is starting to smell like old fish. Greenspan is however not an idiot. His plan for managing this problem is to promote a super-beyond-porn-sized "dead money" liquidity sink in the USA so that he can inject obscene amounts of liquidity into the system and finance that transition more or less smoothly.

Are you starting to get the pattern? Without confronting the issues that make productive capital investment, the long term mandate of the Federal Reserve, then the Federal Reserve Banking system is forced to go from one liquidity-"dead money" binge/fix to the very next one generated by the waning of the previous one. It truly is a vicious circle.

I'm starting to think that someone should have a talk with Bernacke's and Greenspan's friends and maybe stage an "internvention" because this isn't healthy.

"Dead money" isn't the same thing as investment. As a matter of fact, it's the exact opposite. In a further post I'll explore the inflationary and deflationary aspects of the military-industrial complex, the fundamental basis of capitalism, the role of surpluses versus debt, and begin discussing how various (quite excellent) suggestions of what investments we should make to break out of this liquidity-"dead money" addiction that we've gotten hooked on.

As my readers have astutely pointed out, the truly logical course if one needs a liquidity sink to tide one over is to just bite the bullet and make large long term capital investments. The regulatory changes and the formation of capital can then healthily allow new liquidity to enter the monetary supply without increasing inflation. The capital investment is the very opposite of "dead money". This choice to invest in productive capital rather than use "dead money" is called an "economic restructuring". However economic restructuring is politically difficult, because by definition it means that you have to stop favoring the protected industries and special interests. And the reason why those became protected in the first place was that it was easier to buy them off by favoring them then get a real electoral mandate and voter constituency for change.

So it all comes down to tough choices.

While I completely agree with Stirling, Barry, and my readers as to what the general task must be the reason why I've explained all of this is to outline the institutional motivations and cultural barriers which explain why the logical and rational course of action to remedy the situation has not been taken.

If there's one over-riding economic reason to vote for Kerry over Bush it's simply that Bush stands for using "dead money" to try to prop up the old economic system while Kerry at least opens the possibility (with his proposed energy "Manhattan Project") of beginning to take the necessary steps toward restructuring the economy and productive capital investment. There's no guarentee that Kerry will be able to break the addiction, but it's highly unlikely given Bush's track record that he will even try to grapple with tough choices.

146 Comments:

At October 22, 2004 at 11:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oldman argues:

"...the short term the path of least resistance in managing liquidity needs for the economy always lies in working on the side of issues that have political favortism - the protected industries and special interests. Whenever a central bank works with one of these it is not creating investment but it is instead creating dead money."

So, in a sense the use of "dead money" here is similar to the notion of throwing good money after bad, but in this case it is "thrown" in order to keep liquidity in the system. Why?

Why the rush to keep liquidity in the system? If people are rightfully scared becasue of massive corruption in the system (politicians, accountants, business titans, bureaucrats (including military) all stealing as much from the system as they dare) why not let the system have a "day of reckoning" and later use Keynesian stimulation to get things going again with an eye on cleaning out the corruption?

My answer is political expediency and/or being puppeteered by plutocrats. Folks just want to postpone the day of reckoning as long as possible and hope that blame will fall on someone else.

Those who believe in Hyman Minsky's "income fragility hypothesis" believe that there comes a time in financial systems when "ponzi finance" reigns supreme. Injections of money into the system at such a time always create bubbles that will have to be de-aired (slowly, or dramatically) later.

My biggest question is why (other than the explanation above) can't we admit that long wave dynamics, psychological and herd-oriented behaviors, are stuff central bankers and others must have in their field of vision? This is the stuff of complex systems theory and the stuff JK Galbraith talked about long ago in THE GREAT CRASH--Galbraith along with many other market cycle writers).
Dave Iverson

 
At October 23, 2004 at 12:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My favorite tech dream project is solar power satellites beaming power back to earth via microwaves. Enormous development costs, but very cheap thereafter...

--jeff lawson

 
At October 23, 2004 at 1:49 PM, Blogger J Thomas said...

Most of this makes sense to me, but I find your "dead money" concept confusing. Of course money matters are designed to be confusing, but it helps when you cut through some of that.

Maybe you could focus some on what is supposed to happen to the resources and the people who shape them?

The central problem you're concerned with is that when the money supply increases relative to things to buy, the natural result is inflation. The obvious ways to deal with that are to reduce government spending so the government (and its employees and contractors) will use less of the things to buy and there will be more for everyone else. Or tax people more; the money they give up in taxes is money they don't have to spread inflation. A third obvious solution -- increase production to match the increased money -- is usually not available to governments. You propose a palliative -- make prices increase for things that will be bought anyway, so the money goes there instead of spreading out and inflating the price of bread and shoelaces etc. But if prices for those items go up *too* high, people will figure out ways to do without them, and they'll be useless for soaking up money. Similarly, if it's things that don't get consumed quickly and that can be resold, demand for new production will go down.

You give as an example the housing market. When house prices go up but interest rates go down, people get the illusion not only that they can afford their own homes but that now may be the last time they can afford it. So they take out large loans and their disposable income is reduced for a long time. So they aren't driving up prices on everything else. At the same time, some stupid or desperate people will be taking out second mortgages or getting loans with their expensive houses as collateral, in the hope they'll have more money later than they do now. This would tend to reverse the other effect. And the building contractors and carpenters and plywood-makers etc make out like bandits, they make a lot of money and inevitably spend it or lend it. I don't at all see that this results in less money circulating. What it *does* do is persuade a whole lot of people who aren't very prosperous that they're doing better than they are, because their houses have a high appraisal value. They aren't going to sell and move into someplace cheaper though until they're ready to retire. So *a whole lot of people* feel wealthier than they are in the absence of any money flows that involve them.

In terms of resources, building new housing consumes a lot of resources that could otherwise be used elsewhere. Plywood costs a lot of energy to collect the wood, shave it, glue it, and transport it. Concrete takes energy to calcine the lime, acquire the sand, transport both, mix it etc. Etc. Money is one way to get other people to cooperate, and people who expend their cooperation-capital competing for scarce building supplies won't have as much left for everything else and so there won't be as much competition for those other resources. But people who refinance their old mortgages to get better terms will have more money to spend. It all looks mixed to me.

You give another example, the military. The government spends a whole lot of money for military supplies, and those supplies get consumed during training, or warehoused and eventually expended in a foreign war, and they have no resale value. (Though we do sell to foreign nations some, which reduces our foreign debt a bit and *brings back dollars*. Our foreign exchange deficit is partly dead money, the dollars that don't come back are dollars that don't have to circulate here and drive up prices.)

I don't see how military spending reduces other inflation at all. It isn't like consumers wind up with fewer dollars from it. Defense industry employees spend their salaries. The resources that go into military supplies are consumed, unavailable for civilian industry. Industry profits get used; either they go into expansion (using new resources and paying more wages) or they get sent to stockholders (who spend them) or they go into bonds (and the money is loaned to someone else) etc.

It looks to me more like military spending is one of the reasons to increase liquidity. The government wants to pay for it, both because they want to reward their friends and because defense spending is popular with voters. (And who knows, it might be useful for warfare.) They don't want to collect taxes to pay for it. So they wind up with more money out there. And the resources that the defense industry uses (paper, xerox toner, computers, airline seats, cold-cut buffets, engineers, escorts and hostesses etc) are all resources that are less available to civilians and whose prices will tend to get bid up.

If we wanted a dead money policy, we'd do better to put the dead money into something like collectibles, something that wouldn't start a big boom in making more of the product. But doesn't it seem better to find a way to make something cheap? The more great products available to buy, the lower the ratio of money to goods and the lower the inflation rate. The more affordable stuff to buy, the better. As opposed to making something very expensive that people will buy anyway.

I do see possible examples of dead money. The price of milk went from about $2.50 a gallon to more than $4.00 a gallon here. (It stayed relatively low at CVS.) It's coming down now. A lot of people who buy milk for children don't see they have alternatives. Similarly, the price of eggs went from $1/dozen to nearly $2/dozen, and now is back to about $1.20. And the price of gasoline has varied; where I am it went from $1.40 last year to $1.95, then down to $1.75 as the election approached, and now it's at $2. When you spend an extra 50 cents a gallon for gasoline you have that much less money to spend on everything else. But for reducing inflation, I'm still unclear why the people who get the money I spend on milk, eggs, and gas don't just spend it themselves on the sort of things I would have.

I expect you have most of the picture in focus. The Fed is forced to do short-run damage control. Money supply increases relative to goods due to federal deficit spending (which both increases money and decreases goods), and increased borrowing by individuals and businesses, and increased price of imports particularly oil, and systems that imcrease the speed that money changes hands. The Fed has to do whatever it can to reduce short-run inflation, and the most it can do is stave off the crisis. Since its tools are blunt the money flows in peculiar ways -- through the stock market while the economy looked strong, then real estate, maybe next will be gold and later collectibles, whatever looks at the moment like a viable inflation hedge. If all the Fed controls are prime interest rates and bond stuff, it doesn't have a lot of control how those interest rates and bonds get used. Kind of like a driver who only controls the gas pedal while a hundred others have their hands on the wheel. If they're about to go over a cliff he can ease off the gas and hope they don't make it, and they'll yell at him for spoiling the party. I don't think the dead money concept is the one you're looking for. It stands in pretty well for the one you want but it isn't quite there.

 
At October 23, 2004 at 7:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

J Thomas,
I've been wondering about the same kinds of issues you've brought up, and I a few thoughts on them. I think it the dampening effect on the supplies of "active-money" from the economic activies that OldMan talks about (building houses, buying military hardware, etc) could, in part, be due to the transfers of wealth associated with these activities (transfers from the public to the wealthy ownership class) and the relative effects of marginal wealth these different classes have on the "active money" supply. Specifically, if we look at WHO, in the end, is profiting from these activies, HOW MUCH they are profiting, and WHAT they are doing with those profits, we might be able to find the source of the dampening effects. I'm no expert on this stuff, so this is purely speculation on my part.

It seems like the poor and middleclass folks spend most of what they have whereas the ownership class (i.e. the Powers the Be that own most of the capital and wealth in our country) put most of their income in "dead-money" areas that OldMan talks about. If this is the case, than that would certainly help explain the kinds of policies we've seen under AG and the Powers that Be because when I look around at what's going and has gone on in the economy, I see a massive transfer of wealth from the public to the ultra-wealthy ownership class. The increase in the wealth gap is a symptom of this trend. Who made the most money in the equity-bubble? The same guys that always make the most money in stocks: the ownership class. Who's making the most money on this housing bubble? My guess is the guys that own the most land, and who probably are, in the end (I'm just guessing here), the same guys that own the bulk of the capital in this country (and globally). And who are the folks that reap the enormous profits from the military expenditures? The folks that own and operate the military-industrial complex we like to call modern America. :-)

All of these "dead money" activities have led to enormous revenue flows into the areas of the economy controlled by the ruling class. And while they've certainly transferred plenty of those revenues back into the economy via wages and the cost of production, they've also kept A LOT in the form of profit. And where has that profit gone? Not back into the "active-money" supply. So maybe it's the end destination of the profits that create, at least in part, the "dead money" effects in the the economic activities that OldMan identifies.

Like I said, this is just speculation on my part.

Keep up the great work OldMan! :-)

Stan Marsh

 
At October 24, 2004 at 1:19 AM, Blogger Oldman said...

You're still thinking of money as little pieces of paper. It's not what money is. Money is the value or economic accounting or "activity" associated with the transfer of little digital bits, pieces of paper, or poker chits. When you jack up the price of something it lowers the number that represents the total money circulating possible - the monetary supply.

Banks dump in or remove little pieces of paper all the time. It doesn't make any difference.

It's a very difficult thing for most people to grasp since it's not concrete, but rather abstract.

As for the military issue, you haven't read carefully. Of course the marginal cost of production - labor and commodities - recirculates in the economy as money (economic activity). But when you start paying millions of dollars for one missile, that cost doesn't represent marginal costs of production but jacked up prices. That markup is the dead money.

Think of it this way. You and your friend start playing a game of poker. Then one of your starts introducing more chips. Well of course the stakes of betting and raising are going to go up. But as it spirals up in a bidder war, what happens if the actual bidding exceeds the amount of chips put in? Then the number of "free" poker chits left to bid with actually decreases.

Because it is not a given, considering human psychology, that the price bidding be limited to some rational proportion of the new liquidity added.

That's why I was talking about speculation, moral hazards, and bubbles. By creating a bubble in specific asset class not only can Greenspan add more money to the system, if the bidding get's out of control it can actually "suck" the oxygen out of the fires of capitalism because the bidding war get's out of control. That's why dead money always inefficiently allocates capital - by definition it's drawing real money away from capital investment into asset speculation. It has to in order to work. As long as those prices stay high, that money then stays locked into that price spike.

Now do you understand?

If you don't I'll try to cover it in my next post on the surplus basis of capitalism versus the asset collateralized debt financing system.

Please be patient. This is not an easy topic for anybody, but give me a chance to explain something to you that you as the public have purposely been misinformed about.

 
At October 24, 2004 at 7:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The original Keynesian theory was -governments should borrow money in the bad times and pay that money back in the good times.- (The last part got lost in the economist looking for a free lunch.)

During the 30's the Government started up dead money projects, some with long term returns and some just to put people to work.

The Tennesce (sp) Valley Project.
The hydro Dams projects
The national parks projects
The "Work Farms" projects

All of these were paid for with borrowed money, but the national debt at that time was very low. Now, we have a very, very large national debt and are still borrowing money to pay for the "bad times". The medium and long term solutions are to PAY OFF that debt. As Greenspan said back in 2000 and in 2001.

Now, if the government were to cut/slash it's spending and begin to pay off the national debt, the economy, not only of America, but the world would go down. Big Time.

If, the government were to start paying off/back that debt, where would the money go??? The chances are it would go into dead assets with very little of it going around and tricaling down to the working people.

We have some very good ideals about where it should go; space, alternative energy, schools, etc. BUT, it will not go there on it's own. Why not? Ignoance, greed, mistrust, special interest groups, etc.

Unfortunatly what is lacking is TRUE LEADERSHIP! If we had that true leadership we could not only pay off the national debt but use our own money (privet money)(the government paying us back for the bonds that we had bought, that they no longer sell), to stimulate the economy, (employ people) and in 5, 10, 15 years time reap an economical profit/benifit from this economical quagmire that WE have allowed ourselves to get into.

So, what is needed is for the President and Greenspan to do the homework in regards to the privet companies that need to be started (IPO's) that will execute the ideals that we have presented in these last posts. Basicly convert US Bonds into new shares of IPO's where the monies will be spent to employ people and buy the equipment needed to execute the choises of ideals that we have made. This in a nut shell is called political and economical democracy!

This is the ideal solution. But, for reasons mentioned in the last few posts, the governments never enact the "Ideal Solutions". Why not? Because WE won't demand it of the governments.

Jim Coomes

 
At October 24, 2004 at 9:31 AM, Blogger J Thomas said...

I'll be patient. I'm not disagreeing with you, just a part of what you say doesn't make sense to me yet.

I think part of the problem involves what traditional economists called the "velocity" of money. The easy textbooks don't talk about that much because it's hard to measure; they mention it and then start talking about "money supply" like there's a fixed number of dollars. But the speed the money moves is central, and it's hard to measure.

It sounds like you're talking about money getting moved from places it moves fast to places it moves slow. The more of the money that gets stuck in slow motion the less it inflates.

But then I look at my own situation. Say I send in my mortgage payment on the first of the month. I send it to a woman who bought a lot of real estate and who works full-time, she rents out a lot of places and she tries to keep them in repair in her spare time. She hopes to retire in a few years and go live in Wheeling WV near her daughter and grandchildren where the housing prices are a lot cheaper, and she's slowly selling off her property -- I expect it's getting harder to live off her salary and make payments on the properties, and with so many people buying the pool of renters looks more and more disreputable. And at any time she might get fired and be stuck here until she can get the stuff sold off.

So I send in my payment and the same day she spends the money paying for another property. And the same day, the people she bought that other property from send in their check on some other property they own. And the money goes down the chain until it reaches either a bank or FHA or something like that, or it gets to a retired person who's already moved rural, or a really rich landlord. Now, my check doesn't clear for 5 days, but neither does my lender's or her lender's. So all that money moves at the same time, it takes 5 days for it all to get where it's going. What happens to it then? I dunno, it goes wherever it goes next. But it didn't spend very long in the housing market.

I know I don't understand the defense industry, but I note that cruise missiles cost close to a million dollars each, and once the military has enough of them, any year they don't use any is a year they don't buy any, and the vendors have to keep their assembly plants ready regardless. They aren't set up for a large burst production; after we use them all (as we did in iraq) it takes a long time to build up stocks again. The more money they put into manufacturing plant, the more of the time it sits idle and the higher the profits they need to break even. But I don't know how long they keep their money sequestered so nobody else can use it. If they put their money into banks while they wait to spend it, don't the banks loan it out in the meantime? Or is there a reason not to think of it that way?

Money is designed to be hard to think about. It might help to consider motivation -- what people do for money -- and in that context how resources get allocated. The important thing is how it connects to physical reality. And a lot of how it connects to physical reality is from what people decide to do because of it.

 
At October 24, 2004 at 11:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Commes (and perhaps Oldman to some extent): keep in mind what is a "dead investment" is in the eye of the beholder. On many things people agree that they are mostly useless, but at least in my book national parks & recreation areas, or local recreation areas are not "dead money". It is part of the reason that you go work every day, so that you get something out of your life. Otherwise you could say much healthcare spending is "dead money", because who cares that this or that fucker lives a bit longer. Somebody else will take his/her place at the production line.

 
At October 24, 2004 at 3:05 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

I wouldn't call national parks dead money at all. The problem is that it's very hard to sometimes tell the difference of what dead money is and what an investment is, though they may look similar. That is the reason why the Fed can get away with it - because even smart people have trouble telling the difference sometimes between 'dead money' and 'investment'.

Dead money is essentially created by over-bidding induced by a feeling of affluence created by putting more markers into circulation.

For instance: The Fed floods the economy with liquidity. Rich people start feeling super rich. Rich people buy art. Now I would be willing to say that in cultural terms great art is priceless. But that's not the point. The point is not how much you pay for it, but how much given the money supply, supply, and demand that would be the "natural market price" for it.

When the Fed floods the economy with liquidity, art sales become super-charged. They start going up ... not by some amount proportional to the money added to the system but a much higher amount. The net result is that much much higher price for art is paid. Where does this money come from? Yes some of it comes from the extra money added by the Fed. But as the price skyrockets it sucks money that had been just circulating around and doing other things. This money get's trapped in the higher jacked up price of that piece of art.

That's why you can actually experience deflation - at the cost of diminishing available capital and future returns - by introducing liquidity. The 'dead money' isn't just the money that the Fed adds - it's the money that is also taken off the street by the overbidding.

Dollars may move around, prices may go up, but the net result will be less dollars in circulation even though the total supply of dollars is increased.

 
At October 24, 2004 at 3:40 PM, Blogger morinao said...

Okay, so the idea behind dead money is not that currency is removed from circulation, but that it gets trapped in a bubble market through continued reinvestment. In other words, overpriced artwork would not constitute dead money if the art dealer bought a new house with the proceeds, nor would a million dollar missile if the aerospace firm diversified into fishfarming. It's only when the art dealer plows this surplus income back into more art that inflated prices trap currency in a dead money bubble. Right?

 
At October 24, 2004 at 4:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[cm]

(I tried to submit this before. It did not show for the longest time, and I started editing it and will post it again. Oldman, if it becomes a double post, delete the previous one. Thanks.)

Oldman: Slight correction to "fewer dollars in circulation": There are always more dollars in circulation, but less in _real economic_ circulation. The money in the art, housing, and financial markets still circulates, and a (too small?) part of it still goes through the real economy as somebody who sold a picture for $500K hits the street with a $1000 restaurant bill. But ultimately these $1000, after possibly "trickling" into other real-economic things (restaurant chefs, waiters purchasing food etc.), flow back into (Ricardian) rent/mortgage/taxes, and from there back into "dead" activities. And the other $499K presumably go into buying other art, stock, or some such. Right?

J Thomas: Money generally does not stop circulating. (Oldman in part alluded to it meanwhile, but I already wrote this and will post.) And as life & economic activity goes on, it is not really money that is allocated, but money flows. (However you can say that the money that constitutes a flow "through" some activity is allocated to this activity. Under this notion the individual allocations do not add up to the money supply of course, as money is "recycled".)

As an example of misallocating money flows, take the trading of ever more sophisticated instruments in the financial system. To some extent stock certificates are a mechanism to mediate controlling and silent ownership in ventures, and stock options are to some extent insurance vehicles to protect investments in stock. Likewise futures are (to some extent) insurance vehicles for goods transactions. But to a larger extent, this basic system has been bastardized into a machine to "make money" without regard to the underlying fundamentals. Who cares genuinely about what the companies produce whose stock you own? Insuring stock is no longer the primary reason to own options, but they are used to increase leverage, and judgements about where a stock will move are cynical considerations on behalf of an arbitrage deal.

To the extent that stock prices go up, and more stock is being issued, the volume of money turned over in the financial system increases, and by a "multiplier effect" the amount of money held in trading accounts that you don't spend otherwise, but keep there for financial transactions. That doe not mean that this latter money is really in the account, but chances are you bank will also use the non-fractional reserve part of it for financial speculations. I does not matter that people sell stock an then spend the money on a vacation, because the buyer "puts in" new money. Only _net_ withdrawals will bring money back into the real economy, and you can only have net withdrawals by reducing the price times volume of the instruments. (And in addition there is the money and other resources tied up in running the financial system -- buildings to house trading firms, power for all the computers, etc.)

Perhaps what is confusing about the terminology is that it's not really "dead money" but "dead circulation" that counts.

In every cycle of money recycling, the money can flow through a dead activity or a useful activity. By definition, the latter has a tangible positive outcome. The former can at best have no outcome, or a negative outcome. E.g. you can turn on the shower and take one, or you can turn on the shower and not use the shower (no useful outcome). And with some bad luck, the shower sink may get clogged, and the water floods your apartment. (Yeah, my analogies suck. The flooding would perhaps correspond to environmental damage from some useless industrial venture.)

 
At October 24, 2004 at 4:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[cm]

morinao: That's pretty much what I was thinking, only it took me many more words to express it.

 
At October 24, 2004 at 4:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[cm]

Afterthought on my own monster post and contributions from others:

The image that crystallizes in my mind is that for the largest part, misallocation of money flows is carried out (perhaps mostly unintentionally) by people who either own much more money than they need for a comfortable (by some reasonable description) lifestyle, or people commanding such money. Such excess funds are truly "discretionary" -- they can be spent on whatever the owner/investor wishes, but typically are not spent on desirable real-economic activities, as those are not adding utility from the owner's vantage point. That's why they go into "idle" investments -- what else could you do with money that you don't need right now, other than making more money that you might need in the future? And also as "money rules the world", having more money enhances your ability to compel others to do your bidding.

The "recycling" mechanism I see roughly as follows:

(1) Money is injected by the Fed/Treasury note sale, or comes back from an investment gain.
(2) A large amount is invested in the same thing or something else and goes back.
(3a) Some amount is spent on operating costs (rent, mortgage, insurance, and I subsume taxes here).
(3b) Some amount, including (3a) income, is spent on real-world activities (food purchase, clothing, doctor visits, TVs, gasoline, heating, etc., and the production of those), and on (2,3a).
(4) The recipients of (3b) income spend according to (2,3a,3b).

The real-economy circulation is essentially the (3b) part, which is to the largest extent the subsistence of the society.

The Fed is not much in the picture here other than in (1). The parameters affecting each of the effects are determined by fiscal policy; one way of curbing excessive circulation in (2,3a) is to charge targeted, e.g. progressive, taxes and feeding them directly into (3b) via social programs. Progressive taxes we have, but the money goes instead into military adventures, "reconstruction", and "spreading democracy" instead of social programs.

Wow, another monster post. What do you think? Oldman, is this what we are talking about, or am I off the mark?

 
At October 25, 2004 at 1:50 PM, Blogger J Thomas said...

Thank you all, it makes more sense now.

So it sounds like the point of a dead-money sink is to channel money away from productive investment and consumer spending.

And to funnel money into something else so it *stays* in something else, you'd usually need a bubble. Money goes in, and as fast as it comes out more money goes in. Even better if the government takes a cut of each transaction. So with the stock market, as long as stock prices are going up more people want to play, and every time they sell at a profit they owe taxes. And the brokers get a cut from every transaction and *they* owe taxes on their profits. Then when the bubble bursts everybody who's in at that point gets a deduction on their losses. In the meantime they're all putting increasing amounts of money into the bubble, and all the money they divert to that is money they aren't doing anything else with.

Though someone else might be using their money as reserves to do something else with. But maybe I should ignore that, because almost no matter what they were doing with their money it would spend most of its time in some bank, and then in transit to some other bank. Maybe the bank loans are mostly a constant. Since they can make as many loans as they want by getting money from the Fed at the prime rate and lending it higher, it doesn't matter about their reserves.

But what can the Fed do besides buy and sell T-bonds and adjust the prime rate? It must be frustrating to be the Fed Head and try to provide the appropriate amount of liquidity, and instead of doing something productive the economy heads into one bubble after another. Slow down and you get a deep recession, don't slow down and you get another bubble. I'm glad I don't have his job.

 
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Sincerely,

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p.s. I like to take a look at other blogs to get some ideas as to how I am going to form mine. how to make money with google adsense is related to my future blog building.

 
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So...if you really want to become successful then take action and:
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What a complete waste of time! Then they complain and whine on how life can be so cruel to them.
"If You Could Use Whatever Spare Time You Have In Learning How to Be Financially Free, You Could Soon Live the Life of Your Dreams!"
For this purpose, we have created an eye-opening table of contents and see how
The Business Professional will help improve your business!!
read on at: be wealthy

Guaranteed!!
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The Business Professional will definitely help improve your online profits!
Turn your online business into a driving force on the web. The ball is in your court.
If you like then have a look at be wealthy cause I want to help making you big profits and real cash!


I hope to see you on the inside.

Sincerely,

Jay Kay


PS. The $1 access pass only applies to the first 250 new members. You've got to hurry if you want to claim your deposit. You just cannot afford to miss it!!!

Just go to:be wealthy
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So...if you really want to become successful then take action and:
Make your easy! living online. Find out how! Over 100+ Useful Resources That If Utilized Could Easily Be Worth Hundreds of Thousands of Dollars To You!!
Grab yourself a $1 access pass. If you're fast enough to be one of the first 250 new members at: The Business Professional, you bag a limited $1 new member access pass.
Grab your access pass here: be wealthy

http://www.profitsupernet.com

--------------------------------------------------------------

This How To guide is brought to you by Jay Kay, from The Business Professional.
Get the net working for you.
Join a community of like-minded entrepreneurs and make your living online.
Become a member of The Business Professional network and look at:
be wealthy
http://www.profitsupernet.com
--------------------------------------------------------------

PS. The $1 access pass only applies to the first 250 new members. You've got to hurry if you want to claim your deposit. You just cannot afford to miss it!!!

http://www.profitsupernet.com

 
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