Monday, October 18, 2004

Florida the Swing State,

If you look here, Kerry is ahead in the projected electoral college count.

However, and this is a big however if you look at the score while Kerry is at 257 and Bush is behind at 247 two states- Iowa and Florida are up for grabs. While I expect a close race again in Iowa, Iowa is not the hinge upon which this election swings.

It is, once again, Florida.

Florida's 27 electoral college votes would put Bush at 274 giving him victory. With most of Florida's votes counted by machine this time without a paper trail, there will be no possibility of a manual recount.

Assuming no outside events occur to swing the race momentum, I think we can look forward to Jeb Bush fudging the difference and delivering Florida to the BC'04.

As much as I hate to say it, it's looking more and more like 'four more years' may indeed prevail.

6 Comments:

At October 19, 2004 at 12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chris Matthews on NBC this AM was suggesting that a slight edge does indeed go to Bush in Florida, but believes that Ohio is going to be THE STATE in play come Nov 2. Matthews gives a slight nod to Kerry in Pennsylania (also New Jersey). Matthews believes that whoever gets two of those three states (Fl, Ohio, Penn), gets the whole enchilada. Matthews does, however, stress that we are two weeks away from Nov. 2, and lots of stuff can happen in two weeks...

 
At October 19, 2004 at 1:15 PM, Blogger J Thomas said...

Looking at the same link a little later, I see Kerry:Bush at 284:247. Write off Florida. Nice if Kerry gets it but don't expect anything. Then Kerry would need to keep all his weak states and get 13 electoral votes more.

That means ohio, or virginia, or missouri plus anything else. For the weak Kerry states he could lose nevada if he got new mexico or iowa to replace it. Losing minnesota or wisconsin would be hard, then he'd need ohio plus anything else. Or virginia and missouri. It looks harder.

So I'd figure if Kerry is doing a little better than the polls show and he keeps doing that well, he can win without florida provided the elections are OK in ohio, wisconsin, minnesota, missouri, and virginia in some combination. Might likely lose virginia fairly. Need to not get cheated out of minnesota and wisconsin if they're an honest Kerry win. Need a chance at ohio and missouri, and that chance could get cheated away. Similarly nevada, new mexico, maine, and iowa. But barring fraud Kerry is within shouting distance of winning without florida.

 
At October 19, 2004 at 2:05 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

Thanks for the update JT,

If you look at Polkatz:
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/pollkatzmainGRAPHICS_8911_image001.gif

Yes the electoral college numbers have tightened in favor of Kerry - I think under normal world rules Kerry is the definite victor. However the problem is that Polkatz's chart shows two things: the fundamental support for Bush is downtrending AND that there are temporary cyclical upswings generated by media events.

If we look at this going forward, as Kevin Drum has noted, the logical tactical move by Rove would be to orchestrate a media event on or about October 27th and then ride the temporary crest of the popularity surge into a vote-stealing operation in Florida on November 2nd.

So the fundamental pattern is a Kerry victory, but unfortunately that pattern is also open to a finessed election for BC'04.

 
At October 19, 2004 at 2:05 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

Thanks for the update JT,

If you look at Polkatz:
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/pollkatzmainGRAPHICS_8911_image001.gif

Yes the electoral college numbers have tightened in favor of Kerry - I think under normal world rules Kerry is the definite victor. However the problem is that Polkatz's chart shows two things: the fundamental support for Bush is downtrending AND that there are temporary cyclical upswings generated by media events.

If we look at this going forward, as Kevin Drum has noted, the logical tactical move by Rove would be to orchestrate a media event on or about October 27th and then ride the temporary crest of the popularity surge into a vote-stealing operation in Florida on November 2nd.

So the fundamental pattern is a Kerry victory, but unfortunately that pattern is also open to a finessed election for BC'04.

 
At October 19, 2004 at 3:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Where are the most likely sites for election rigging? Florida, natch, butwhere else is there a potential lean-Kerry electorate coupled with a strong conservative/Republican infrastructure--governors, secretaries of state, etc.?

Off the top of my head, I see Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota have the greatest potential for trouble. But where else might we see an artificial swing?

 
At October 19, 2004 at 7:47 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

Your thinking demonstrates the one advantage that we have, namely that there are many tight state races and the cheaters cannot know ahead of time by how much in order to coordinate a slim Bush victory. So hence they must act in each case as if it depended on them. I think we will see several nasty and unusually blatant vote-steal attempts or suspicious totals. If they were real pro's they'd have either set it up different, or gambled it all on one or two swing states- betting that they were good enough to swing it in a pinch as a tradeoff for a more plausible election victory.

That's ahem how we did it last time. However this time they are considerably more clumsy, so they are going to probably go with multiple front heavy-handed and rather obvious attempts that stretch credibility. This assumes of course that they don't have a pro running things and that they are desperate enough to ensure victory that they will overplay their hand.

I think they will. That's the reason why I'm sanguine about what's going on. Once they expose themselves by going too far, then they'll undermine their legitimacy and be forced to back down or overtly seize power. This of course is just a guess - an estimation - built upon a cynical analysis of human character and personal experience.

Maybe Kerry will sweep to a ten point margin victory and this will all fade away. I certainly hope so. However since my hopes rarely pan out I generally plan for if not the worst then the most inconvenient.

 

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