Monday, October 11, 2004

Globalization Failure: What Is the Tipping Point?

A reader asks this question:

I've asked this question in a dailykos dairy before, which unfortunately has disappeared, but this jist of it goes like this:

Given rising, or at least volitile, energy rates, where is the threshold where energy costs outweigh labor savings in globalized markets? For finished goods to make it from factories to market, raw materials must be transported to the factories, these materials transformed to goods, and then the goods shipped. All of this requires energy. However, shipping materials and goods shipping halfway around the world - back and forth - to gain entry to market is only sustainable as long as the labor differential between local-to-market workers and third world labor is cheaper than the energy costs associated with transport.

So, what is that threshold whereby energy rates rise beyond the labor savings of globalization? Can this be calculated?


--Maynard

Another reader writes:
I agree with the Oldman that this round of globalization is on its last leg. Even if the Bush plan of controlling all of the ME oil reserves were to have worked out flawlessly, global oil production is scheduled to peak in the next 5-10 years (optimistically, some argue that global oil production has already peaked and we just haven't noticed). Since this era of globalization (just like the previous coal powered era of globalization in the 19th century) is built around cheap energy (shipping good thousands of miles prior to consumption, the energy intensive green revolution in agriculture, and the growth of megacities and sprawl) the end of cheap energy is the end of this round of globalization.

Interestingly on Brad Delong's site, we have this comment:
World oil production has already peaked.
The market knows it, just not the general
public. Not yet. It's what's driving Bush
and Cheney grey, doing things their way,
gaining control, but getting no respect.

When the price of gas just keeps going up
and up and up, how will the House of Kerry
keep the White House lights on?

Wind power?

"As that little mind game shows, trying to imagine life after fossil fuels isn't easy. Hydrocarbons are the very lifeblood of modern, industrial society. They are so fundamental to our existence that their role in creating our quality of life often goes unexamined. What our great grandparents would have considered luxuries we think of as necessities. But as even a casual look at history and a quick review of physics reveal, we are living an aberration.

What will this mean for our lives? For one thing, cheap travel will become a thing of the past--goodbye backpacking trips to Bali and cross-country road trips. Our transportation infrastructure is utterly dependent on oil. Forty percent of all the petroleum we consume goes into our personal cars and trucks, and another 20 percent is burned by our trains, 18 wheelers and airplanes. As fuel costs rise, our freeways will crawl to a stop, our airports will be shuttered. The process of economic globalization, which is so dependent on inexpensive transport, will hit a brick wall. By necessity, economies will have to retrench and become more local, more self-centered."

http://www.martinweiss.com The Next Great Crash

Maybe now you'll have sympathy for the Devil.

Posted by Tante Ratatoskr

Personally I would have a great deal of sympathy for Bush co. if they had succeeded. If one is going to justify one's actions with a mind toward the notion that ends justify means, then one is obligated for producing results and delivering those ends no? If you deliver then a debate can be had about the relative merits of whether or not such means as used are an acceptable mechanism for producing said results. When one resorts to extreme means, and fails to deliver or produce results, then the debate about justification is inconsequential no? If you want to be ruthless you had better be very competent, because you are asking to be judged on your competence rather than your morality.

Incompetent and immoral does no one any good at all. But I tried... is not a sufficient justification.

Bush co. did not succeed. End of Story. Back to my reader's point they ask:
Low oil prices benefit every economy that imports more oil than it exports, don't they? No, I'm letting the money confuse me. A local economy benefits when it imports oil and uses a fraction of the oil to produce exports, and then has the rest available for its internal needs -- and its best alternative without that oil doesn't meet those internal needs as well. The issue is how much oil gets sold and who gets it, and price is only one of the mechanisms to establish that. [emphasis added]

The key point is to realize that everything is about energy consumption in the modernized and post-modernized world. For instance you'd think that taking cheap peasants and moving them to the city would be an energy free source of labor? Well you would be wrong. Consider:

  • Subsistance farmers can grow their own food. If you want to free up a bunch of them to do factory labor you have to use energy-intensive agriculture so that a few can grow enough food for many. You then have to spend energy transporting it.
  • Centralized production facilities require distribution and logistics transport systems for raw materials, component parts, and finished goods: this all takes energy.
  • To build and maintain the infrastructure of facilities and vehicles for transport takes energy for the above distribution and production system.
  • You now have to energy intensively construct and maintain housing for above workers- huts in the countryside consume little energy compared to city flats.
  • You know have to produce an infrastructure of electricity. You can burn natural gas or coal instead of oil, but you have to import oil to either get the coal or gas and package it for use - or pay someone else to use up oil to do it for you. Even if you burn wood you're going to use up oil collecting and transporting it. This infrastructure energy consumption leverages oil, but it requires it for basic operation of all its internal combustion engines.

    As the above list illustrates, you cannot convert or maintain an industrialized state without energy supplies. When these supplies are imported, then the energy margin becomes the crucial point of the profitability of the venture. Namely are you getting more oil than you are using up to produce and ship whatever you're producing? As for whether it can be calculated, the answer is yes. It would require a lot of data entered into a database however, to estimate the energy margin across the entire GDP of a nation and its trade flows. The difference between what you bring in and what you use up for export production is the margin you have to live on- the amount of oil you get to use for stuff and services for yourself.

    As Stirling has pointed out so many times, the US has been negative for some time. There is a concept called "cash flow", indicating that one's income at any moment should be balanced against outflows or one might experience a "cash crunch". You might be able to pay the bills, but not on the time schedule demanded by others to to meet contractual obligations. The US is always floating its negative "energy flow" by debt. This isn't good.

    This is the real reason of course that the current accounts deficit and the national debt is short term dangerous- besides all the long term cumulative reasons. Some people have asked, what's to stop the US from just saying "fuck you!" and canceling all the debts we owe everybody. Well besides the rather mild sounding but very harsh terms of hyperinflation, capital flight, etc. the bottom line is that our country would literally grind to a halt because we would run out of oil. If we just reneged on all our promises (without the military power to enforce continued oil sales/tribute to us) nobody would agree to sell us oil anymore and we would literally run out - because we produce so much less than we consume. It would only take a matter of a few months for the Strategic Oil Reserve to be run out even with rationing schemes and our domestic oil production would probably be reserved for extremely high priority usages such as military usage and the rest of the economy would again literally sputter to a halt.

    We need a constant inflow of oil to keep our economy functioning. Those who suggest we are out to steal Iraq's oil are speaking either crudely or out of ignorance. We have never, at least so far in America, made our money by seizing outright foreign sources of oil for national consumption. Instead what we have done is used force to promote and guarentee overall production supply stability.

    Invading Iraq was our way of getting Iraq's oil back on the market without having to deal with the regional nuisance of a militarily resurgent Saddam Hussein. By getting back on the market, we would drop the price of oil and correspondingly reap the economic benefits as the lower commodity price would translate into more investment in American debt and equity securities. If the price of oil had dropped at the same time that the value of the dollar had dropped, that would have been an acceptable solution to the rest of the world. That was because the major thing you need to buy petrol with is dollars, so they really wouldn't have lost its fundamental value. Anyone concerned about losing purchasing power against other currencies could have converted dollars first into oil futures and then traded in or against those contracts for other currencies. But the value of the dollar went down as the price of oil went up, meaning that all dollar holdings shrank across the board in values. Rahter than just being a currency shift it became an absolute and objective shrinking of value.

    This is of course the fundamental reason why the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates even in the face of anemic aggregate demand and employment growth in the US. They had to raise interest rates now to prevent the formation of a momentum bubble in the ten year bonds, and so depress their yields, before the rising price of oil created sufficient speculation about long term inflation in order to create a swelling yeild curve which would have begun a dimple leading to an implosion of the American dollar. That of course was necessary to facilitate continued dollar pegging by other central bank purchases of Treasuries to maintain the system which would have been discombobulated by the currency impacts of a rising yeild curve environment. To maintain their institutional power over the markets, the Fed was forced into raising interest rates in order to maintain its influence to act as a meta-credit agency and the market mover.

    The reason for all of this of course is that most of the US debt is in the short end of the curve, but a rising long term yield rate environment would have eventually raised interest rates on the short end of the curve and diminished the Fed's institutional power to act there. Once a yield curve bubble had become a run-away affect it would have been impossible to stop the Federal Reserve from being forced to accomodate higher overnight rates or to effectively force the short term yeilds down in order to loosen monetary policy without hyperinflationary effects.

    Ironically even though the Fed's actions were ultimately motivated by the imported energy commodity issue, it is acting again with profligate moral hazard. One of the reasons why the market has not yet fully corrected capital investment in oil supply is that there is an artificial inefficiency in the market - one created in part by Fed intervention. In holding down the ten year bond yields effectively the Federal reserve is heightening the price of the bonds and the demand for them upwards. With a demand for these bonds up, it creates a general environment that is inherently bullish for the dollar all other factors being equal.

    As with gold, a bullish dollar keeps oil as a commodity price under downward pressure. So by intervening in the market for dollars, by heightening market demand for ten year bonds, the Fed is also exerting long term pressure against the futures price of oil. Since in the past, the price of oil as a commodity has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms then it becomes clear that long term investments in oil production are actually being discouraged by this policy. Why would you invest long term in the production of a commodity whose returns are by government policy being actually diminished in inflation adjusted terms? You wouldn't of course.

    The last time the oil companies played that game in the nineties, Greenspan flooded the market with dollars while simultaneously engineered a demand in US debt instruments to shore up the dollar. The result combined with production investment caused the floor to fall out from underneath oil as it declined astonishingly to just barely above $10 bbl. Having played that game once and been burnt, the result is that oil producing companies would rather charge a large margin on a smaller production supply than lose money on a larger inventory sale. While this effectively brought a brief spurt of extreme prosperity to American society and the world at the closing half decade at the end of the twentieth century. it was only a brief suspension of the otherwise downward march of the American economy.

  • 78 Comments:

    At October 11, 2004 at 10:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

    [cm]

    Be careful not to exaggerate the "extreme prosperity" that (all?) of "American society" experienced. How can you say that and at the same time speak about BLS bullshitting about unemployment? The truth is that the distribution of "prosperity" is highly slanted, and a significant part of cheap or reasonably priced services is performed by an increasing number of "undocumented" immigrants living in fairly poor conditions, and who I presume don't exist for most statistical purposes. Sure, the good times have lifted most boats a bit, but only a few by a large margin. How do plasma TVs and ever bigger SUVs help you when your food costs are going up 5% annually and healthcare costs 20% (just to say some number), and you almost have to stop seeing the doctor?

    Note that I'm not complaining about the absolute level of US living standards, but about exaggerating their growth rate.

     
    At October 11, 2004 at 11:03 AM, Blogger Oldman said...

    I had a sarcastic tone in mind, but I suppose to make it extra clear I should have added "" (quote-unquote) to express my skepticism. I think that the numbers when you actually look at them, really do speak for themselves.

     
    At October 11, 2004 at 12:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

    A very good question and I don't know the answer to it, though Oldman's correct that it can in theory be calculated and that it's a question of marginal costs.

    Ian

     
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