Sunday, October 31, 2004

It was always about China,

Bob writes in a comment:

"China can slow economic growth, but not by a great deal."

In my weirder moments, I think Iraq was really about China.

Posted by bob mcmanus at October 31, 2004 01:37 PM

Iraq was about China. It's obvious. Just like Japan pre-WWII the one thing that China needs but doesn't have is oil. The only way we can keep our economic viability as a super-power under the current model is to get away with printing a lot of dollars - a reality only made possible by bringing a lot of oil on the world market. As Stirling has pointed out, nobody wanted to trust Saddam to be the delivery man.

In addition, whether or not Saddam would have cooperated by occupying Iraq we could prevent Chinese encroachment on the middle-east sphere. It's been reported and is fairly well known in circles that it was Chinese electronics and fiber-optics that Saddam was attempting to rebuild his anti-aircraft defense system with - the one we kept degrading by bombing it under Clinton.

If you look at Afghanistan you'll also see that China is involved. Afghanistan is a nice regional buffer against China and operations against Taliban and Alqueda from bases in Kazakstan or Georgia or Turkemnstein also make a geostrategic hedge against China.

Bush or rather should I say Condi and Rummy were trying to checkmate China before it ever got to super-power status by putting a strangle-hold on the one commodity that could bring it to its knees given a conflict over Taiwan or North Korea, etc. Oil.

This of course all goes without saying, sine non qua.

That's why we all, myself and others, were taking a rather considerable risk by failing to support the Iraq venture. The USA is already committed to a oil blockade against Chinese hostilities. Failure to complete the gambit will be disasterous - ten years hence when China attempts to seize Taiwan or let's North Korea off the leash.

That's why Kerry can't be allowed to just bring the troops home whatever he is promising. It would effectively guarentee the loss of South Korea and Taiwan within a decade. And then worse as China displaces the USA as preminent superpower and locks up the middle-east by allying with Russia and negotiating with Europe.

One way or another Iraq will have to be made to work ... I feel this is true even if I have to go there myself. There is no other option that doesn't cede Taiwan, South Korea, and the South China Seas oil fields to China. However first Bush and his power-base have got to be reined in one way or another.

Anyone under the illusion that the world would be safer under a "multi-polar" world hasn't been paying much attention. "Multi-polar" is a recipe for a new Warring period.

China has two choices in the medium term. It can continue expanding or it can undergo revolution. It could also reform but every sign is that they aren't becoming efficient enough fast enough (unwinding the tangled ingrained social power relationships of corruption) widely enough enough to provide sufficient social justice and stability in order to obtain popular legitimacy. Therefore they must expand or undergo revolution when the pent up pressures are feedback into the system by the limits of expansion. For expansion they need oil and cheap oil and the strategic freedom implied by a guarenteed oil supply to accomplish geostrategic advances.

The logic is inevitable.

253 Comments:

At October 31, 2004 at 11:44 PM, Blogger Green Boy said...

Interesting thoughts, but too strongly spoken. There are some cheap and easy deterents to the 'China threat' - Pre-emption Preventers. If Taiwan and S. Korea have just a few nukes, China will not invade.

The other big problem with your thesis is that China is inherently unstable - picture a nation of avid gamblers, whose entire economy is founded on a banking fiction. You're an economist - you know that their banking system is a bad joke. A global superpower needs more than just advanced weapons systems.

You need to get past the 'superpower' mentality. We're heading into a century not unlike the 1800s - a multipolar world with regional powers and regional conflicts. The problem with that, of course, is that regional alliances and power jostling lead the world into the disasterous WWI.

The issue with controlling the oil is more fundamental - without oil, given the stupid decisions we've made about our energy future, the U.S. sinks from 'hyperpower' to regional power (but with nukes). That makes us the dangerous 'wounded lion' that Osama mentioned after his 9/11 attack - somewhat weakened, but still dangerous and quite unpredictable.

4 more years of wacky energy policy will be more years wasted, dragging us farther and farther into Osama's trap. China can 'grief' us to some extent by building up regional powers (including a putative Sunni fundee super state in the gulf headed by former Al Qaeda guys), but their economy is intricately tied to ours - if we get the flu, they get pneumonia.

 
At October 31, 2004 at 11:57 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

Greenboy if China even thinks we are giving Taiwan and South Korea nukes they will invade on the drop of the hat. The casualty projections are stark, but they will win. Or the alternative is that they purposely give nuclear technology to Islamacist proxies. And their spies thoroughly infiltrate Taiwan and have considerable access to South Korea. I doubt we could pull a Cuba missile deal on them. The scenarios of ceding South Korea and Taiwan was mentioned because it was the best scenario if we can't oil blockade them now that we've started trying - not because it was the only scenario.

 
At November 1, 2004 at 3:49 AM, Blogger Oldman said...

Right on schedule. I hadn't even heard about this when I posted this entry.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-11-01-china-bush_x.htm

On the eve of the U.S. presidential election, China accused President Bush of trying to "rule over the whole world," saying the invasion of Iraq destroyed the global anti-terrorism coalition and worsened religious and ethnic conflicts.

The strikingly pointed criticism from a government that Washington calls a key anti-terrorism ally was a departure from China's past refusal to comment on the U.S. presidential candidates.

 
At November 1, 2004 at 9:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A big problem with our China policy has been the problem of mixed interests. America is ruled by business interests, and these salivate gushingly over the money to be made from China. Hence, America has moved mountains to help China even while it is obvious that this is not in our long-run strategic interest. The best thing that we could have done recently to contain the Chinese threat - and it is a threat, to democracy and human rights, much as the left may not like that language - is to keep China out of the WTO. That would have seriously hindered their expansion, buying us much needed time (which is all grabbing the oil does). You'll notice there was almost no support for this in the "patriotic" Republican party. And for all his staccato gesticulation, Bush showed the true gerbilian nature of his testes regarding China in the spy plane episode. American big business had too much money in the game to see much made of this. The second Nixon went to China, the elite right and left decided this was the best thing Nixon had ever done. It may have been the worst.

And so dies the nation state, biggest dinosaur first. The third world is familiar with the experience of an elite that does not see their self-interest alligned with the national interest. America is tasting this now, though it has not properly identified the vintage. In a sense, the globalizers need America taken down a few pegs, even though America has been their big dog. America is the one country that can tell the IMF to shove it.

I don't think China can move into the position that America holds because they are too mono-cultural. American commercial culture is superficial but, for that reason, universal in its appeal. America is a nation that constantly has to integrate new immigrants, and so needs a culture that is easily graspable, grounded in basic universal emotions, and not requiring of deep connections or understandings between people. Having created such a culture, export is a breeze. China will not get the world speaking Chinese, listening to Chinese music, nor watching Chinese TV. The lack of soft power means China will have to rely more on hard, which is vastly less efficient. For that reason, I do expect it to remain regional. Unfortunately, it threatens to dominate the most important region.

One of the reasons I have taken a relatively tolerant view of outsourcing to India, despite its direct assault on my own interests and my belief in the legitimacy of allegiance-based rather than universal morality, is that I see the buildup of India as a counterweight to China. The business class has found a way to allign its interests, if not with the interest of the United States per se, at least with those of democracy and human rights. India is far from perfect on this score (so is America), but it is far better than China. Also, it is a diverse society, and therefore more capable of cultural influence. Bollywood is already giving Hollywood a run for its money globally.

- Martin Bento

 
At November 1, 2004 at 12:34 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

You're right Bento. The predominance of soft power is the characteristic of a hegemony- that's what we have now. The predominance of hard power is the characteristic of an empire- that's what China will try to become. I hesitate to say that they will fail, since a billion people working at anything is going to make a big mess, but the lack of soft power reduces their chances of success since hard power causes counter reactions that oppose it.

But even if they can't conquer the world they sure can mess it up trying along the way.

 
At November 1, 2004 at 1:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They won't want control of areas outside their traditional sphere of influence. But lord help you if you mess around inside their sphere.

Ian

 
At November 1, 2004 at 1:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The threat the China is a direct result of greedy self-serving traitorous American businessmen who decided to do everything to help the Chinese become the premire exporters they are today. Then there are all illegal technology transfers that leading American companies did during the 90's. All for $$$ of course.

The Chinese ICBM's have navigational systems provided by Lockheed and Loral. Thats the invisible of capitalism at work people.

Ironically our own amoral behavior also gave weight to the old communist maxim " the last capitalist will be hanged by the rope that he sold us."

The short of it, we need first to reign in American business interests and put a tariff on imported Chinese goods before we can do anything else.

Iraq is a gonner, unless we implement a draft which will ignite political firestorm and civil unrest. The poor won't like it when the businessmen and government take their kids to fight and die for the greedheads who screwed everything up to begin with.

I'm too old, but I'll be damned if I let some fucking plutocrat in Washington or a oligarch on WallStreet take my neices and nephews to cover for their greed and insanity.

Rodger

 
At November 1, 2004 at 3:43 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

That's not very comforting Ian when you consider their "traditional" sphere of influence includes: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, etc. and that we already have evidence of them transfering advanced technology including that for ballistic missiles to Pakistan and Iraq. Remember that to justify their annexation of Tibet they cited a treaty - one signed before the invention of the printing press. If they take all of east Asia and lock up the middle-east, that looks like an empire to me.

As for Rodger, we are committed irrevocably to a path of war. It's not just a question of $$$ any more. At this point we're conceivably talking of things like mass sexual enslavement as end road outcomes.

China after all has a lot of single angry young men.

I agree however that the current establishment must be humbled and power transferred to a new democratic participatory commonwealth. They're too incompetent to be allowed to rule much longer. First we take care of our own house, and then we take care of the rest. That includes finding a way to win in Iraq. There is a way, I just don't know if there are any politicians smart or desperate enough to embrace it and the people needed to make it work.

 
At November 2, 2004 at 8:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For my part, I cannot imagine any successful outcome in Iraq, from a US point of view. Even as I type the insurgents make more prominent disruptions. More oil pipelines are cut, US casualties continue to climb, and increasingly significant members of Allawis puppet government are assassinated. It has been plain for the better part of a year that the US destroyed any chance of running the country within the first month of victory, as the result of making no plans for occupying it. But it is too late to go back to March 2003: We have not only destroyed Iraq, but our own reputation--through an amazing combination of incompetence (practical failure) and butality (moral failure). Either alone might have been over-come, with time, but the combination means that we are simply no longer the "leader" of the "free world." Successful strategies will somehow have to deal with this change.

As I see it, the only thing the US can do is leave. As we lose territory to the insurgents, it seems to me the wiser choice is to cede it to them. The essential problem is to persuade the new leaders--which is what they will become--to deal with us, and I don't expect it to be easy. But staying longer won't help us in this at all, and will just erode more of the US military capability.

I'll admit that as a peon, I just can't understand how the wealthy think. I mean: Is the world so internationalized that they can just move to China after the US is run down and keep on making money? This hardly seems likely, but what else do they have in mind? This is one reason I am still amazed at the decision to destroy the US economy. Our entire civilization acts as if it is intending to be swept away within a century.

Your hints imply you have a very different concept for Iraq in mind. I would like to know what it is.

 
At November 3, 2004 at 12:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

China is not a direct military threat us currently. 2 Carrier groups would make short work of their navy and air force. The ground war is different, but without air superiority superior numbers are just more corpses. Even they know it.

Its the economic angle I worry about. China has bet the farm so to speak by becoming a exporting powerhouse. The drawback is once our economy tanks under a second Bush regime. Its going to cause severe political and economic upheavals in China. Not thats it isn't already happening it is especially with its 25% Muslim population. There is also a lot of factionalism and regionalism within China. The Northern Han despise the southern Hakka, the Hui don't like the infidels, etc.

My main concern is the incipent warlord syndrome within Chinese culture. If the Central gov't loses control we could have a situation much like pre-communist China. Imagine what would happen to the nukes.

It also hurts us as China is one of our biggest buyers of debt.

Personally I see this situation as a deadly embrace where if one goes down so does the other.

Rodger

 
At November 3, 2004 at 6:17 AM, Blogger J Thomas said...

Rodger, suppose the chinese stop exporting to the USA for one reason or another. What do they lose?

Do a lot of their people lose their jobs? Maybe, but why? They buy oil, they use it to expand their production and send the production to us, and in return we give them pieces of paper. (Or rather, numbers in a databse that represent pieces of paper.) If they wanted to they could keep the factories running, keep the people employed, and pile up the products in a big pile in the gobi desert and they'd be just as well off except we wouldn't give them the right to so many pieces of paper.

They could even give all that stuff to their own people if those people wanted it. Plastic laundry baskets. Halloween costumes. Christmas tree decorations. Whatever they wanted. Or they could retool a little and make stuff their people did want.

The only problem is, if the availability of oil is reduced then they can't keep it all going. If we've been persuading people to pump more oil than they want to, through threats of military force, CIA dirty tricks, stimulating regional rivalries etc, china might find that e.g. saudi arabia was simply unwilling to pump as much oil as they wanted to buy, because there simply wasn't enough that the saudis wanted to buy in exchange. In the short run china could handle that by getting the oil that we would otherwise buy -- if we let them. They have the money; we don't. In a free market they could outbid us, but our navy could redirect the tankers while the tankers still steamed.

In the longer run china needs alternate energy just as we do. And they don't have the same social and political constraints to keep them from developing it, though they might have other constraints that would stop them.

 
At November 4, 2004 at 3:07 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

Chinese strategic doctrine is more advanced than is commonly believed, including and up to using Korea as a second front to divert US forces and the theatre use of tactical nuclear missiles to counter US carrier groups while retaining strategic nuclear deterrence against US nuclear reprisal.

If it comes down to it unless we want to turn the country into glass - and accept the complete breakdown of US society through multiple urban nuclear reprisals - we would lose a war fought today much less ten years from now when their navy will be much more advanced.

The war game simulations are pretty conclusive on this.

 
At November 4, 2004 at 3:07 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

Chinese strategic doctrine is more advanced than is commonly believed, including and up to using Korea as a second front to divert US forces and the theatre use of tactical nuclear missiles to counter US carrier groups while retaining strategic nuclear deterrence against US nuclear reprisal.

If it comes down to it unless we want to turn the country into glass - and accept the complete breakdown of US society through multiple urban nuclear reprisals - we would lose a war fought today much less ten years from now when their navy will be much more advanced.

The war game simulations are pretty conclusive on this.

 
At November 4, 2004 at 11:18 PM, Blogger orc said...

Anonymous said "China is not a direct military threat us currently. 2 Carrier groups would make short work of their navy and air force. The ground war is different, but without air superiority superior numbers are just more corpses. Even they know it."

It's not the USA that China will challenge (at least not yet. After the Coward in Chief's excellent adventure in Iraq has finished destroying the Marines and Army, it may be a different story), but our vassal states in the Far East. If, for instance, China uncaps their missile silos, then invades Taiwan, just _what_ will the United States do? Pray the never-successfully-tested missile batteries in Alaska work and launch 800 ICBMs into the part of the world that's financially supporting the United States, while hoping that some of their 2300 Bombs aren't aimed at our vassal states in Korea and Japan?

And I suspect that China is getting ready to cut back on their underwriting of the American economy; their potshot at Maximum Leader Genius and his brittle self-esteem is almost a dare for the US to do something really stupid financially. It may be a deadly embrace, but I don't think the Chinese see it that way.

 
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