Friday, October 15, 2004

Neomodernism and Bond Pricing,

MSNBC reports that 30 year and 15 year bond prices fall over the past week.

WASHINGTON - Interest rates on U.S. 30-year and 15-year mortgages have moved lower following last week’s disappointing jobs report that suggested economic growth had slowed, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said on Thursday.

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to an average of 5.74 percent in the week ended Oct. 14, down from 5.82 percent a week earlier. Freddie Mac said 15-year mortgages averaged 5.14 percent this week, compared with 5.24 percent last week.

One-year adjustable rate mortgages also followed the downward trend as they fell to 4.01 percent from 4.08 percent a week ago.

“The decline in mortgage rates was primarily due to a weak employment report for September, which suggested economic growth is still a bit subdued,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in a statement. “Of late, there has been no compelling economic reason to believe mortgage rates would climb out of their recent range.”

U.S. employers hired 96,000 workers in September, according to a government report last Friday that fell well short of expectations.

The Labor Department report showed the unemployment rate held steady at 5.4 percent in September. But the unexpectedly small payrolls gain raised some questions whether a mid-year economic “soft patch” was persisting and might force the Federal Reserve to halt its campaign of incremental rate rises sooner than expected.

The Fed has raised short-term interest rates three times this year -- from a 46-year low of 1 percent in June to 1.75 percent at its last meeting on Sept. 21.

Next week the Commerce Department will release U.S. September housing starts.

A year ago, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.95 percent, 15-year mortgages 5.26 percent and the ARM 3.69 percent.

Freddie Mac said lenders charged an average of 0.6 percent in fees and points on 30-year and 15-year mortgages and the ARM, all unchanged from a week ago.

Freddie Mac is a mortgage finance company chartered by Congress that buys mortgages from lenders and packages them into securities for investors or holds them in its own portfolio.

Copyright 2004 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.

If you take a look at their handy dandy chart of 30 year bond rates you can see that you have a pattern of higher lows and lower highs. This is from a purely technical point of view, a convergent pattern. You can see the rates hit about 6.5% and then drop to 5.5% and then hit about 6.25% and then drop to 5.75%. If the convergence continues it's not hard to see that if Fed tightening continues on its advertised course, that the 30 year bond - an instrument for much speculation - will converge to about 6%.

Given that the Fed Funds rate, the short term rate, is set at 1.75% and might be estimated to rise to 2.0% within a few months all other things being equal, that's a spread of 4% between the 30 year rate and the short term rate.

That doesn't seem bad on the surface. However let us view this historical chart of both nominal and inflation adjusted (2004) oil prices bbl.

If you compare the two charts - it would be an exercise in simplicity to feed the two charts into an Excel spreadsheet and order up an insta-graph - we can see some interesting trends. First is that cutting interest rates seems to have a correlation with the price of oil.

The second interesting thing to note is the historically inflation adjusted price of oil bbl. From the very beginning of the historical table it is about $20 (2004) inflation adjusted dollars and stays at or thereabouts that level (or lower) right up until 1973. Then from 1974 onwards for the rest of the seventies it's in the mid to upper twenty dollar a barrel range.

Contrary to conventional wisdom and popular folklore, the highest price for inflation adjusted average annual prices will in fact be reached during the eighties and it is not until 1986 that suddenly the price of oil drops in inflation adjusted terms by half back to about twenty dollars a barrel. If we were judging economic perforance solely by oil, we could argue that when Reagan asked people "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" that the Carter era while not a peach was preferable from the point of view of petro-consumption.

Alan Greenspan is appointed in 1987 to finish Volcker's term, and thereafter we see a pattern where oil only nears $30 a barrel twice for the rest of the millenium - in 1990 and in 2000. However in 2003 crude prices again near thirty dollars per barrel and as we know the spot prices are beginning to think about flirting with $60.

I'm not going to try to argue causation between the interest rate numbers and the oil numbers from this rather brief data sketch, but I will try to argue policy and consequence. My thesis is that the prosperity of the American people for the last several decades has been to zeroeth order based upon a petro-consumption economy. Periods of high oil prices, sometimes even when they only appeared as one year of elevated annual oil prices, are associated with poorer economic performance and hardship.

If we look back at Reagan's first term, we can argue that the primary difference between Reagan and Carter was not the underlying oil prices but that Reagan ran a fiscally stimulative budget. Lots of defense sector spending, lots of agricultural subsidies, and lots of tax-cuts that basically floated the economy on a sea of debt until about 1986. This is the reason why even though there was a recession in the early eighties, and a hard one, the economy picked up in time for Reagan to win a second term. However this increased debt came at a cost.

It allowed countries to increase their currency leverage and effectively undercut the Greenback to export heavily to America. It should also be noted that while Volcker was taming inflation, that fiscal policy by politicians completely undermined any impact that Federal Reserve policy was having as far as managing debt demand. But along the way a magical formula had been discovered. America kept on borrowing and borrowing, and instead of creating inflation the price of oil actually dropped and created a surge of prosperity.

Of course the reason why it worked is that other nationals eagerly took up the debt in order to invest in either the high US rates of return or to leverage the currency rates in order to export more to this country.

You have to remember that Nixon had only taken the country off gold back in the seventies, and the reason why he'd had to do it was that the US was getting arbitraged to death by a fixed gold standard. Part of the reason why that had to happen was that the US currency really wasn't backed by gold anymore, but by the strength of petro-consuming industry or commerce. It would only be the early eighties however that the Federal Reserve would get it's act together enough to realize that by manipulating interest rates it could manipulate economic activity through the US monopoly on the transactional liquidity for oil.

At the same, the Reagan short term fiscal stimulus of defense spending, agricultural subsidies, and tax-cuts in a "Voodoo economics" or trickle-down theory. Of course the irony was that Reagan policy wasn't supply-side theory at all because he in fact was undermining the means of production in the country. Reagan's theory was quintessentially Keynesian, in that he was applying central government boosts to aggregate demand. However because of the demand for US debt for reasons of speculation, arbitrage, and currency leverage it created a period of out-sourcing and export-based marketshare capture in the United States. This created a brief shot of prosperity that would last until the 1990's when like an addict America needed a hit again and so Greenspan who had been observant and learned the magic formula could depress oil prices by jacking up money supply in order to manufacture a false boom.

Here are some longer term Fed Funds numbers to make the point.

Let me clarify part of what I have just reasoned. If you have a house with built up equity asset value in it, a bank may come along and offer you a home equity loan. In return for signing over the accumulated value of part of the home equity, and then agreeing to pay it back with interest later, the Bank will give you a quick infusion of cash liquidity now. Of course if you haven't spent the money as part of a debt restructuring program or cashflow adjustment to your budget you will run out of money again. At which time if you have any home equity left that lender or another may proffer you yet another quick cash hit that will float you for a while until you need another.

That is a bad enough analogy but imagine for a moment that the bank is also lending to a corporation that is selling you stuff. The lending institution notes that when you get your big hit of cash, you tend to go spend it on the stuff from this institution. As a matter of fact, it may give you coupons that make it "cheaper" to buy merchandise from that corporation. Of course in actuality the bank is just milking you. It's not really cheaper at all. Not only is it extracting your built up asset value from you, but it is making you work to pay off interest to it as it goes along - aka wage slave.

Of course it's not entirely the bank's fault that you are silly enough to go along with this, like most predatory lending agencies it is merely smart enough to spot someone who has a problem but would rather borrow than face up to that problem and restructure their income or expenditures to get back in the black.

The early part of the eighties were a period of fiscal stimulus keeping the economy afloat that turned into a temporary burst of kickback money as Americans literally sold the equity asset values underneath them in return for a quick cash hit. Clinton you will note was part of the parade and an extension of it rather than a period exempt from it.

If we get back to the original topic, it's clear then that the 30 year Treasury rate is just forecasting a renegotiation of the terms of the long term liquidity extraction or asset stripping or asset liquidation (such euphemistic terms for such an ugly process) rates that will be charged for such a process. Like most debt bubbles one could imagine that it could go on forever, and it might except for one thing.

The whole process depended that the monetary supply increases could be absorbed by liquidity transaction economic needs of petro-economies that traded in oil by the dollar. In 2003 the magic formula stopped working, and oil prices stopped conveniently stepping in line with the interest moves of the Federal Reserve. There are many proximate causal explanations, but it is sufficient to note that for all the hand-waving that we are not near "peak oil" inflation-adjusted levels that we in fact have already surpassed the economy-busting and recession-inducing levels of the seventy's oil shock. It is also notable that given the break between the usual relationships between oil and the short term rates we must not take for granted that previous relationships and transformations must necessarily predominate this time around.

It is clear that a break in the old pattern has been established and the markets are in search of a new equilibrium. The cables connecting Greenspan's usual levers have been snapped or sheared off, overwhelmed by the stresses that he has attempted to put them under.

In addition the political drama of the season features a referendum not on Bush but ironically the reality of Carter versus the ideology of Reagan. This time around the failure of the central government to stimulate aggregate demand has been made clear by the break in the past historical patterns. It is probably true that the debt binge could not give a strong pick-me-up this time around simply because of the "law" of diminishing returns. As more and more of America get's asset stripped you are going to see less and less of a bounce for each wave of off-shoring that goes on.

In other words as you borrow away the value of your house, the bank is going to come back and give you less and less leash each time you are forced to renegotiate terms. I don't think that the present renegotiation is based upon the terms of complete liquidation. I think rather that perpetual debt slavery is more of what the loan sharks have in mind.

It is said that each time Sisyphus rolls the boulder up the hill and then at the last moment it tears itself from his grip and tumbles back to the bottom that it just a tiny bit harder to get it back up the hill the next time around. Yet he still tries. That is the definition of insanity colloquially is it not? Trying the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result each time?

Bush43's Administration in the first term has been attempting to replay the basic Reagan economic playbook for a quick pick-me-up rather than trying to stretch things out like Clinton did. However the ground had been played out already, exhausted by the strip mining of American value. The low hanging fruit had already been taken off the tree by Reagan and Bush41, and then Clinton had gotten on a tall ladder and had pretty thoroughly picked off all the fruit except the ones at the very top. There was going to be no each pick-me-up hit for the addict this time.

That is what people are voting for when they vote for Bush - a renegotiation and sale of accumulated value in order to stave off the wolves at the door until tomorrow. He is trying to replay Reagan's play and they're cheering him along because, well, it worked last time didn't it?

When I looked at the thirty year treasury prices that's what I saw, among other things. What did you see?

105 Comments:

At October 15, 2004 at 11:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oldman,

I can't find fault with your assessment. I wish I could. There may be more to the picture than either you or I see. If so I hope that someone, somwhere will help us see a brighter future, something other than depression or stagflation. Thanks for your Bloging.. Dave Iverson

 
At October 15, 2004 at 6:02 PM, Blogger Ed Tayter said...

I think that your analysis is spot on. The connection between the fed funds rate and the price of oil is, IMHO, caused by the fact that only dollars can be used to purchase oil from OPEC countries. As soon as that connection breaks, a prospect that seems ever more likely as the US bungles its Middle East adventure and as the euro gains momentum as an alternate international petro-currency, the Fed won't be able to push oil prices down with anything like the same ease as it did in the 80s and 90s. Also, once oil is purchasable with other currencies, the international demand for dollars (and dollar denominated assets) will plummet. Specifically, the Bank of Japan and Chinese Central Bank will no longer buy our low yielding T-Bills like it was going out of style.

These two major changes (oil purchases in alternate currencies and reduced demand for US debt) will cause a significant downward revaluation in the dollar, which will cause interest rates to rise significantly. These increasing interest rates will put enormous pressure on the highly leveraged American consumer. This pressure will most likely result in a massive wave of bankruptcies, which will exert positive feedback on interest rates, which will cause more bankruptcies. The eventual outcome is intense inflation (orders of magnitude greater than what the US experienced in the 70s) and further devaluation of the dollar.

How the US responds to this frightening series of events will shape the next century. We have gone too far down the road of asset stripping and dependence on foreigners purchasing American debt for an easy resolution of this crisis. Eventually a new international monetary regime will arise, but the era of American dollar hegemony is rapidly coming to a close. The break of the linkage between the Fed funds rate and the price of oil indicates that we are already on the first steps toward the end of dollar era.

 
At October 16, 2004 at 12:37 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

There's an interesting (fantasy/sci genre) book out by Robin McKinley. I found it interesting not particularly because of the main nominal topic (vampires) but her realistic depiction of a post-post-modern fractured polity (city-state) society accompanied with discussion about ordinary life, commerce, urban development, inflation, and nitty gritty life.

In the book, dollars are called "blinks" because that's how fast they go - once international trade is fractured, hyperinflation and debt default hit, and terrorism (magically produced in the book), effectively reduces the largest cohesive of unit to a coalition of polities (city-states). Aristotle would be if not proud at the very least entertained.

Science fiction is always an alternative lens to view the present and fantasy is always an alternative view to depict our inner lives. We live in the time of the decline of the Rome of our age. At least that is what the metaphor is, basically describing the state of the normalization of the "East European" model of impoverished balkanization.

 
At October 16, 2004 at 1:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[cm]

I fully agree that oil is the life-blood of this economy; and not only the US economy, but any contemporary industrial economy. However, each machine and every living organism whose functioning is based on a metabolism (if you will kindly view the workings of an internal-combustion engine or jet engine as a crude kind of "metabolism" -- the conversion of matter from one form into another) needs to extract energy from some source. That can be chemical reactions where charges move from high-energy states to lower-energy states (combustion engines, mammals), absorbing sunlight into chemical charge energy (plants), driving generators with water vaporized using a non-chemical heat source (nuclear, geothermal power plants), extracting kinetic energy from moving media (wind power, tide power, ...), etc. Electricity is "merely" a mechanism to transport converted energy by propagating charge differentials.

Energy is needed in primarily two modes -- stationary (production facilities, homes, etc.) and autarkic (transportation vehicles). Today's economy places a rather high and increasing emphasis on the latter -- produce remotely & distribute worldwide, suburban separation of residential and business zones leading to long commutes.

Clearly an oil-based economy of this sort is unsustainable, but there are only two principal ways out of it -- cut down energy consumption and/or replace more efficient or yet undepleted energy sources. (I'm not going to discuss the equally important ecological aspects.)

Yet it is clear that the burning question is one of energy sources and "metabolism". The first goes under the heading "alternative energy sourecs". Regarding the second, I fundamentally believe that the only way to cut down on the "metabolic rate" is to significantly decrease the transportation volume, which requires more decentralized and localized modes of production and commerce (combined with "smarter" management of goods distribution).

If society, hopefully managed by a somewhat "fresher" administration, cannot pull this off or at least steer the US supertanker somewhat in that direction, I don't see how to break out of the vicious circle.

What do you think?

 
At October 17, 2004 at 12:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kerry is part of the old guard much like those in the GOP. The only difference seems to be that he's aware things are going bad and will try to do something.

One problem he faces if elected is a corporate monster that is intent on milking every last $$ out of this dying economic system of ours and it won't go without a fight.

Another problem is time. We're running out, plans and programs for this inevitable oil crunch should have been put in motion decades ago. Instead we'll be trying to find solutions on the fly which isn't a good thing when you're trying to fix macro scale problems.

Another obstacle is how do the industrialized nations downshift from a system based on insatiable consumerism and natural resource destruction to one that is sustainable or steady state? This includes China and India as well as Europe.

Rodger

 
At October 17, 2004 at 7:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you compare the oil price chart, oil price jumps following the crash years, with the chart of the DOW, you will find that mini-crash and the oil price jumps match up.

Crash of 1974, oil price jump 1981, mini-crash 1981
Crash of 1987, oil price jump 1990, mini-crash 1990
Crash of 2000, oil price jump 04-05, mini-crash 04-05

Thanks for the chart!!!

Jim Coomes

 
At October 20, 2004 at 6:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very Good Article!!!

I would argue that neighter Kerry nor Bush will take the bull by the horns and try to get America out of it's comming "Great Crash"!!! The best way is to pay off the national debt.

Question? The people who are manipulating this asset striping senario, of America, don't they stand to lose as much or more if America goes into a big crash? By the way, the whole world will take a big dive economicaly if this comes about. So, where will they move their assets, cash (pounds, Euros, Swiss franks), gold, silver, stock/shares, art, so that they will have as much control of it as they do in America and not have to pay astronomical taxes, fees, and or bribes?

Where will they live? Will America still be the policeman of the world? Can we afford to be? If not who will take our place? What is to stop a country from invading the country in which all the assets are stored? Who will stop it? Or why doesn't the government of that country just confiscate those said assets?

With big risks, come big gains, but they also stand the chance of lossing everything too.

Jim Coomes

 
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