Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Weeping and gnashing of teeth,

Well my hat is off to Rove. He really did win this election by means fair or foul. The sad thing for me is not that Bush won. I was expecting that the results would show that, and have been for weeks.

My prediction was that in the real world Kerry would according to all data and polls win by up to 4-5%. If you look at the demographics - Cubans sliding toward Kerry, women breaking for Kerry, independents breaking for Kerry, etc. - it perfectly supports that. However my expectation wasn't that the real world rules would apply but that bizarro world rules would apply.

Before the election the cartoon strip ran this cartoon which I will quote:
"You don't hold that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth?"
Karl Rove, speaking to Plato

In the bizarro world rules I fully expected that Florida would never go to Kerry, despite as said 90% of blacks turnout for him and Cubans sliding into his column and more women coming into his column, and that the GOP would just make up the numbers they needed. Something similar but not as widespread as in Ohio. That plus given massive GOP turnout - the story that wasn't these past few weeks (I'd carefully noted it ... it seemed somewhat odd that the media wasn't covering that angle) - in the Southern states and wedge issue politics gave the GOP the edge.

Since I expected bizarro world rules to apply I am not surprised at all.

No the sad thing for me is not that Bush will have four more years. It's the eventual agony. You see most of my friends and family voted for Bush. Now when things fall apart I'm going to have very strained social relations with them. I am not the type to say "I told you so,". However they will already know that, and it's going to be ugly.

It's going to be ugly and they're good people. I'm sure that when all is told and said and done that they will regret this vote for the rest of their lives. Especially when they or their kids or their friend's kids get sent to die in foreign wars. Or watching their retirements destroyed. As I said I won't ever mention this to them.

But I'll have to watch them suffer, knowing I can offer no comfort. By my nature I have difficulty doing anything other than acting with candor. What am I gonna say to them? You deserved it? You brought it on yourselves? I told you so?

I can't say those things. They might be true but I can't say them. I'll just have to be nice to them, no extra nice to them, and not mention the topic.

This could actually be good for the Democrats. It's more important that they have their illusions stripped and learn how to fight and understand how impotent they truly are. That and it will expose all the intellectual lite collaborating sell-outs in their midst. I'm also not unhappy that the Clintonistas have been banished for another four years. I take some comfort that Rubin has been relegated to the history books rather than made some sort of idolatrous god. Only then can some good come from this.

Stirling wrote this before the election:

Lyric, the angels sang of a dream called Democracy,
Stolen in darker corners by the goblins of hypnocracy -
rule by the worst, from last to very first,
and an ethos of defeat, a morality of retreat,
that gives way to darkness, and ultimate deceit.

Decrepit the wheels of mediocracy turn,
We repeat the cycle, but never learn.
And while a distant land is set to burn,
We, instead, our comments churn.

To whorship on that bandar-fire like frogs,
and document our descent to madness with blogs.

To which I replied this:
Be stalwart Stirling! The worst is yet to come, yet fear not! For in the darken hour when all hope seems stripped away then will illusions fall and through the grieving pall shall people at last pass beyond the past and in the ruin of all shining tall then at last hearts shall uncover that outer beauty had its origin only from strength however imperfect hidden deep within so then upon broken foundation stones will the flowers of a new spring bloom brighter than rockets red glaring so that having lost it all we found a joy unexpected and unforseen in America's new beginning.

I think he was depressed about how things were going. I can't say I blame him. He was prescient enough to sense something was wrong, though he hoped better. Me I was just my usual cynical self so I wasn't disappointed at all.

There are two problems. The first one is symbolically the way that this nation handles Gay rights. Personally I don't support gay marriage either. I think it's too soon for it. On the other hand, whatever you feel about banning gay marriage would you think it was worth two trillion dollars in debt? I think any sane person would have to say no. But that's what was on the menu. Vote against gay marriage, even when the other guy doesn't support gay marriage either, and be billed two trillion dollars. Because that's what the optimistic projection of the Bush deficit for the next four years will be.

The second problem is that we have a party in power but not capable of governing. The other party is marginally more capable of governing but incapable of holding power. There's going to have to be a lot of soul searching in this nation before we can set things right, and times will get very dark before that comes to pass. Republicans aren't ready to rule, and Democrats aren't ready to win. I took quite a bit of flack for saying that a few months back - not ready to win - isn't what people who work hard want to hear. But they weren't ready to win. So they didn't. Not just the Presidential election but they got tarred in every close Senate race out there.

Now if we were in the real world we would ask ourselves what are the chances of Republicans picking up all 5 very close races even the one in Lousiana which has weird rules so that they didn't even have to have a run-off there. In the real world we would say that the probability of that happening was very low and look with some curiousity into the mechanics of how that happened. But this isn't the real world. It's bizarro world.

And in the bizarro world Republicans aren't ready to rule and Democrats aren't ready to win. Sad but true. So we will all suffer for it.

Gonna be rough times, but that's what we're in for now so no use complaining. Americans as a whole, whether by Republican stubbornness or Democratic fivoltry, have gotten us into this. Nothing to do for it but make the best of it.

23 Comments:

At November 3, 2004 at 10:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of course I can rub it in, but then none of my relatives voted for shrub. Now we pay the piper. Buy gold and silver and own real estate in nice quiet places. We shall muddle through, but not without significant dislocation and pain. Time for our foriegn "friends" to begin pulling the rug out. It will take years to get to bottom, but when it gets here.

AllenM

 
At November 3, 2004 at 11:01 AM, Blogger fling93 said...

Man, I thought you were being overly paranoid when you said the fix was in a while back. Now I see that you were right.

However, I am wondering whether this may be an opportunity for the Libertarian Party. Third parties generally don't matter unless one of the two big ones implode. With the Dems marginalized and the grown-up Republicans not having a voice in their own party...

 
At November 3, 2004 at 11:16 AM, Blogger Grand Moff Texan said...

So, are we ever going to hear what Oldman's October Surprise was supposed to be?

In the meantime, is there any good economic news out there?

Anything?

 
At November 3, 2004 at 11:57 AM, Blogger Oldman said...

Humpgate at the debates. Idea was to suggest and expose that Bush was on drugs. Which he is bigtime. It failed. I failed. I admit that.

Rove was smoother than I thought he would be. My hat is off to him.

As for what Democrats should do next ... it's simple. Run a campaign to get Edwards in office. Run a primary challenger to get Kerry out of office. Everything else follows from that.

 
At November 3, 2004 at 11:57 AM, Blogger Oldman said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At November 3, 2004 at 12:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Democrats did run a lousy campaign no doubt about it. Not ruthless enough by far and they also lacked a message that could resonate with the voters. Kerry never connected well either.

First thing: Get rid of Clintonistas as Oldman suggests.
Second: Purge the Democratic party of its old boys
who have ruined the party.
Third: Let Bush hang himself.

Bush will destroy his party , this is a forgone conclusion. His crew is so incompetent they’ll get us into more wars we can’t win, help tank the economy, turn the world against us, screw the working class and old like never before, they’ve kept us wide open to attacks by OBL and his crew.

I predict by 2006 that our nation will be in a depression and possibly suffer another major strike by OBL, possibly Washington itself.

The task before us IMO is to regroup and relearn how to fight the GOP thugocracy in 2008 and figure out how to break the back of the fundamentalists and evangelicals who form the core of GOP support.

 
At November 3, 2004 at 2:56 PM, Blogger J Thomas said...

On the other hand, if the democrats lose a bunch of house and senate seats in 2006, maybe they'll become small enough to be a third party?

I'd be kind of pleased to see a Libertarian/Green party challenge the republicans. Maybe run on a platform of hard work toward alternate energy, small government, protect some nature, and reduce deadly pollution....

It's a platform that a lot of people could get passionate about, more than traditional democrat or republican platforms. In response the republicans have become the War Party....

 
At November 3, 2004 at 3:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If we assume that, as Marx said once - "religion is a drug", then good 60% of American population are on this drug with no chance of rehab. This is not too difficult to control someone who is on drugs - their world perception is not adequate, sort of a "bizzaro" world. It is all about control, and drugs and fear are the most efficient means to impose the control over the population. Bush and his team are absolutely brilliant in their ability to manage the population - first scare the crap out of them by "terrorist threat", then make them accept the idea of inevitable struggle and in the end - sun will rise again over the shining city on the hill. Simple and effective. So, what exactly had Kerry to offer to the American people? His pathetic appeals to logic and common sense in people failed miserably as no logic or common sense are relevant in this case. An advise to the Democrates for the future elections - look carefully at your fellow Americans, find their balls, grab the balls and - sky is the limit from here.

 
At November 3, 2004 at 8:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was in no way prepared for Kerry conceding the election before all the votes were counted, nor before the outstanding questions about ether-voting and tabulating were publicly resolved, but there it is: In less than 24 hours he conceded.

For all his talk--or anybody's talk--this is not the act of a man seeking to win, nor of a man who thought it important to win.

Oldman is right.

It reminds me of professional wrestling.

 
At November 3, 2004 at 9:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For me, the covenant is broken. Any nation that hates gays more than they love their own children is not worth an ounce of my sympathy.

When those kids that couldn't bother to vote get drafted . . .

When Alabama mammas see their daughters mutilated in back-alley abortions . . .

When the price of that Chinese-made gimcrack at Walmart starts going through the roof . . .

When the cost of driving to work in a gas-guzzling tank eats up most of the take-home pay . . .

I just don't have to give a shit. It's liberating, really. Except for what personally affects me, there is no longer any bad news.

jlw

 
At November 3, 2004 at 10:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kerry rolled over because he was a consumate insider and two legged weather vane who never really stood for anything. He was the Democratic equiv of Bob Dole.

But this is what the Democrats get when they run spineless insiders who wilt at the first attack.

Edwards wouldn't have, neither would Clark or Dean for that matter.

But they are not insiders.

And this is precisely the problem with the Democrats right now. They rigged the system so that only their boys can get the nomination(this BTW is exactly the same problem in the GOP). What needs to be done is to purge these scumbag insiders who suck at the trough of corporations and PACS and ignore the rank and file.

Rodger

 
At November 3, 2004 at 10:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well said:
"Now when things fall apart I'm going to have very strained social relations with them. I am not the type to say "I told you so,". However they will already know that, and it's going to be ugly. It's going to be ugly and they're good people. I'm sure that when all is told and said and done that they will regret this vote for the rest of their lives."

That part made a lot of sense to me, and maybe I'm a bit too pessimistic about the outcome, but I think the people who voted Bush are gonna be just as hurt by their decision as the rest of us. In my last blog post for the next few months, I try to make the case for saying, fuck them, they get what they asked for. It's much harder when it comes to friends and family, and not something I'm willing to do, but for strangers, I will shed no tears.

 
At November 3, 2004 at 10:57 PM, Blogger orc said...

"Democrats aren't ready to win"

Well, they ARE the stupid party. Buckling after a whopping 12 hours was quicker than I'd believed possible, but that is, regrettably, the modus operandi of the DLC-era Democratic Party.

The annoying thing, even though I suspected it was going to happen, is seeing pretty much all the liberal warhorses line up behind the "oh, it was good to quit; it was only a little loss" party line. I "only" make $100,000 a year these days, and from my point of view it's going to be the apocolypse -- the Evil Party may crash into the rocks, but the net they're spreading is going to take everyone < $300,000 a year down with them ($100,000 a year might be good now, but it won't be quite so good when the exchange rate is $1 == 1¥

 
At November 4, 2004 at 10:41 AM, Blogger Oldman said...

A 100-some fold decline in the greenback vs. the yen? Ouch. Someone out there want to look into what the "natural" level of currency exchange float of the Chinese and Japanese currencies are agains the dollar? It'd only be an estimate but we need that data ... if orc's suggestion is in the right ballpark could be worse than I thought.

As for the rest... please go on venting. Democrats and progressives and liberals will need to vent for the next few days. It's good. And it'll help you get rid of your negativity.

About the future - worry but not too much. I have a plan. All of you are a part of it. Things are bad. Things are gonna get worse. But there is a way out. So vent. Then come back and get ready to work and think harder than you've ever worked before. Because we are gonna show those sunnvabitches exactly what we're made of.

 
At November 4, 2004 at 11:34 AM, Blogger fling93 said...

Looking forward to hearing about it.

 
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