Sunday, November 21, 2004

Why do I care about Amtrak? Simple, I don't.

I don't in fact care about Amtrak.

What I do care about is that there is going to be a energy-limitation population density implosion occurring. If handled correctly this can be utilized to reconsolidate the capital investment basis and support the asset values of the means of production within this country. Using mass transit we could create a new travel and distribution system that could first survive the energy-crunch and then expand based on the decentralized network of alternative-energy production.

As a commentator noted, there is considerable profit and potential in consolidating communication and utility services as well because the current distribution grid whether from water or electricity is both inefficient and wasteful.

Frankly I don't care if Amtrak goes under - so long as we could get an investment pool together to buy out its assets and implement the new model. Frankly with the pressure on regional, local, and national budgets about to happen in the next few years once this borrowin binge becomes unhinged road construction will have to switch to point-to-point use models supplementing the ground-rail distribution system. Regional plane flights and internationals apparently will still be profitable but the national carrier hub-spoke system is going down.

Urban planning for the 21st century will have to either face the reality of radically changing the precepts of end-user design philosophy in transportation routing architecture and civil engineering or we will face unacceptably large numbers of homeless, hungry, jobless individuals in crime-ridden and economically devastated urban zones.

Yet all shall go to waste without leverage, and so I hope I have the courage to grab the live wire when it comes my way.

48 Comments:

At November 22, 2004 at 1:31 AM, Blogger orc said...

You realize that Amtrak is doomed the day that passengers become profitable again. The railroads in the United States are really REALLY stupid, but eventually they'll figure out that they're leaving cash on the table for someone else (just like they did with fast parcel freight) and then they'll fight like the devil to make sure that nobody else walks off with that cash.

They won't run passenger traffic themselves, of course, because that would make sense. No, they'll just kill off Amtrak and be happy that someone else isn't making any money.

 
At November 22, 2004 at 11:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

orc: I figure behind the polemicism is a message that I don't get. Are you trying to say that the rail owners and the train operators are two (or more) different entities fighting each other, and this is a major ingredient why the rail system is floundering (if the latter is at all true)?

cm

 
At November 22, 2004 at 4:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

rail is not in trouble, take a look at BNSF, UP can't get enough qualified people to run their freight. The onlt RR in trouble is the one that used to be managed by Mr Snow who now works for the boy king, what does that say?
Regarding passenger service, why should it be profitable? Tell me one transportation system that moves people that exists without subsidy. You people have to start thinking that some things are just worth having if you want to have a society rather than a social darwinistic jungle, and those things might not be profitable. I want to see one example of privitization that has made service better and cheaper. It does not happen that way get over your market wet dreams

 
At November 22, 2004 at 4:58 PM, Blogger Oldman said...

It depends on how you look at it. Commuter or travel passenger is usually not profitable. However without it you don't have people for production and services. I was thinking of marrying the distribution of goods and services with passenger. There is no "subsidy" in the sense that you're artificially lowering the price. It would be understood up front that you have to ship people to make the other side profitable. A cost of doing business as it were.

No road system exists without "subsidy" either. But you got no roads you got no transport and commuter or passenger. You don't have those, you don't have production and distribution. Don't got those, don't make money.

It's a "rent" thing. You got to have a place to live, even if it doesn't make you money cause without it you can't make money (real well).

 
At November 22, 2004 at 6:32 PM, Blogger orc said...

"I figure behind the polemicism is a message that I don't get. Are you trying to say that the rail owners and the train operators are two (or more) different entities fighting each other"

Yes. Amtrak is a tenant on the freight railroads. And the freight railroads (I'm thinking of the Union Pacific in particular, because the railfans who run that railroad have commented on it) aggressively try to stop Amtrak from doing things that will earn money. A few years ago, Amtrak tried to get into the LCL parcel business, and the screams of outrage from the freight railroads were something to see; everything from "they're taking our business" (Aside from Amtrak there is no railroad LCL business in the United States) to "if they carry freight cars, they'll block the railroad and we won't be able to run trains" (I don't know what the terminal facilities at most of the Amtrak stations are like, so I can't comment on that.)

The relationship between Amtrak and the railroads is an uncomfortable one. The railroads bet that passenger service would never be profitable, and I think that it embarrasses the top offices when Amtrak tries to prove them wrong. A few years ago, after the LCL parcel business war had been going for a while, Amtrak changed directors and the new one said (paraphrased) "OH, NO, WE CAN'T MAKE MONEY. WE'RE SOOOO BROKE!" and the whining from the freight railroads went down almost immediately.


The problem with the coming energy crunch is that it will be difficult for Amtrak to say this when they have to do waiting lists for coach accomodations. And it's not as if the upper management of any of the railroads will notice; all of the class one railroads are stuffed with GOP super-deluxe-team-leaders (and the worst commerce secretary in all Christendom) with company jets, so they won't even notice the energy crunch until their accounting departments start prefixing routine memos with "we need to electrify the fucking railroad NOW, and ..." So, the railroads will do their usual sore loser dance, get their friends in Congress to sell off Amtrak, and let intercity transportation go completely to hell, but at least someone else isn't making money off their railroad!

 
At November 22, 2004 at 7:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What we may/will have in the forseeable, liveable future is an economical crunch and an energy crunch. This is going to effect the transportation cost, electrical cost, water cost, telephone cost, gas heating cost, cable TV cost, sewage cost, mail/delivery cost.

Take this in conjuntion with the fact that the avarage infastructure of America was built over, What? 70 years ago, (in the cities anyway, -cut me some slack on this) and has long since passed it's expiration date. In other words, the system is falling apart. Roads, bridges, water, gas, telephone, sewage lines.

Another thing to consider is the HIGH entre cost for a new competitor to any of these fields. Example; consider the startup cost to supply people with water or electricity! Dig the ditches, lay the pipe, get the permits etc. The same goes for Power lines. The point is, it cost too much to repair the existing grid let alone be afordable for a new competitor.

Now, let us try to put all this togeather. The first Ideal was to build/use a train system for mass transport. Well, the first place to consider to place it is on the existing roads, or over them, or under them. Even if you use another avenue, what comes next still applies. Anyway you look at it, it all involves construction. The basic ideal is that you did up the avenue, lay a tunnel system for all your utilities then put your transport system over the top. Lets go the whole hog. Put your road system back where it was, your train system underneight it and your utilities on eather side or under the train.

Yes, it would be exspencive and a pain while it was being built. But if/once you got a good construction team working and it's supply infasturcture going, then it would move along fairly fast. The trick here is to keep the frenching government out of IT. There in lies most of the high cost and time delays.

Now comes the hardest part!!! How to pay for it! Here again, keep the frenching government out of IT. What you do is you privitise the road system, but to a localy owned corporation. One that is set up with the proper bi-laws, to protect the share holders. The share holders can only buy a maximum of X shares and have to be a local resident ONLY, minimum residentsy of one to three years. Basicly the local people will have the option of owning their own utilities infastructure. Thus paying for it themselves. Thus, they will have a direct interest in it, which in therory means they should??? try to make it work and keep it's operating and maintenence exspences down. Owning the maximum of X amount of shares will give them X amount of votes. Political and economical Democrocy!!!

The way for it to pay for itself is to charge the water, electric, sewage, telephone etc. companies a fee per unit/month/costomer, however you can negociate it. They pay a fee to someone anyway.

What is obvious here is that we are killing many birds with one stone, spreading out the cost of a train line over many other lines, and lowering the cost for new competition to come in.

Oldman, GRIDS??? I read somewhere that the realestate industry tries/tried to establish right angle blocks in their realestate. This was to maximise land value and reduce oddball size wasted land. In pipe lines it is to reduce friction. (see pumps) In trams, the maxumum trams you would have to take would be three. In cost and distance traveled, snakeing lines, a streight line is cheeper. Your argument about the grass and pavement is well taken. All so, my artistic ability has always been ZERO!

This has all been a very, very basic outline. It can be modified in any number of ways. (The tunnel system I just found out is used in Los Angeles. In what form it takes to my outline I do not know.)

Jim Coomes

 
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